No-surprise win

Published : Jan 18, 2008 00:00 IST

The BJP's chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal (right) and its central leader in charge of the State unit Satpal Jain in Shimla, after the victory in the elections.-PTI The BJP's chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal (right) and its central leader in charge of the State unit Satpal Jain in Shimla, after the victory in the elections.

The BJP's chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal (right) and its central leader in charge of the State unit Satpal Jain in Shimla, after the victory in the elections.-PTI The BJP's chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal (right) and its central leader in charge of the State unit Satpal Jain in Shimla, after the victory in the elections.

The BJP victory has more to do with an overall disaffection with the State government than the politics of the Central government.

The 2007 Assembly election results in Himachal Pradesh threw up no surprises. Going past all electoral rhetoric and arithmetic, a conscious electorate voted out a government, which it felt had not delivered in the past five years. Of 68 seats in the Assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 41 and the Congress, 23. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) opened its account in the State with a seat and independents, mostly Congress rebels, won three seats.

The BJPs sweeping victory is in stark contrast to its performance five years ago. In 2003, it won just 16 seats whereas the Congress won 43. This was when the National Democratic Alliances (NDA) India Shining slogan was at its peak, the BJP was leading the NDA government at the Centre, and the party had won comfortably in Gujarat.

The 2007 results, however, had more to do with an overall disaffection with the Congress government in the State than the specific political character of the government at the Centre. The highly literate and politically conscious people of the State voted on concrete issues, many of which were the outcome of policies pursued by the Central government.

However, the Congress vote share went down only marginally from 40.7 per cent in 2003 to 38.7 in 2007. The BJPs vote share, on the other hand, went up significantly from 35.4 per cent in 2003 to 46.5 per cent in 2007.

The BSP increased its vote share this time compared with the previous elections. But it managed to win just one seat despite contesting all the 68 seats. The Lok Jan Shakti Party, led by Ram Vilas Paswan, was not even able to hold on to the single seat it had won in the last elections. The party contested 39 seats this time. The Samajwadi Party contested 10 seats, the Nationalist Congress Party four, the Communist Party of India eight and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) seven, but all drew a blank.

The victory margins ranged from less than a hundred to over 26,000, with Prem Kumar Dhumal, the BJPs chief ministerial candidate, winning the Bamsan seat defeating his Congress rival, with the highest margin.

The rebel factor harmed both the Congress and the BJP in a few constituencies. In Kullu, for instance, where there were rebels from both parties, the presence of a BSP candidate pushed the Congress to the third place. The Congress votes got divided here and the BJP candidate won by 5,033 votes. The Congress candidate here was brought down by his nephew, who contested on the BSP ticket.

In Kasaumpti (S.C.), BJP rebel Roop Dass Kashyap, who contested as an independent, ensured a smooth victory for the Congress nominee by 7,299 votes. In Nurpur constituency, BJP rebel Rakesh Pathania trounced Ajay Mahajan, son of Congress heavyweight and Revenue Minister Sat Mahajan, pushing the BJPs official candidate to the fourth position. The BSP took almost 10 per cent of the vote share, affecting the Congress prospects badly.

However, in Balh, a reserved seat, which saw a three-cornered contest, despite taking almost 20 per cent of the vote share, the BSP could not inflict any damage to the prospects of the Congress. Similarly, the BSP factor did not affect the Congress candidates victory in Baijnath.

In some constituencies, especially in the Kangra region, the BSP came third, cutting into the votes of both the BJP and the Congress. The BJP could not retain the Kangra seat, considered the stronghold of former Union Minister and Chief Minister Shanta Kumar of the BJP. It came a poor third here with the BSPs Sanjay Chaudhary winning by a narrow margin of 1,309 votes over his Congress rival.

In Doon, the BJPs victory margin was 3,496; the BSP polled 8,726 votes here. In Paonta Doon, where the BJP candidate won by a margin of 4,862 votes, the BSP candidate polled 7,377.

In Nurpur, where the margin was 4,165, the BSP candidate polled 6,570 votes. In Gangath (S.C.), where the margin was only 690 votes between the independent runner-up and the BJP winner (here the official Congress candidates nomination was rejected), the BSP candidate polled 4,612 votes. At Bharmour (S.T.), where the BJP candidate won by 16 votes, the BSP candidate got more than 500 votes. The BSP factor affected the Congress here.

In Rajgir, another reserved constituency, it was a close call for the Congress; the victory margin was only 1,218 votes while the BSP candidate polled 1,200 votes. In Kullu, the votes polled by the BSP and the Congress were far more than those polled by the BJP candidate who won. In Banjar, there was an open rebellion in the BJP. The rebel candidate was Karan Singh, younger brother of Maheshwar Singh, the BJP Member of Parliament from Mandi, who contested on the BSP ticket. The BJP candidate won by a narrow margin of 232 votes.

BSP convener Vijay Singh Mankotia, a former Congress Minister-turnedrebel, lost from Dharamsala. He had campaigned vigorously, posing a bigger threat to the Congress than to the BJP. He had also made grandiose declarations of making Dharamsala the winter capital if the BSP were able to form the government. That may be still a long way off, but Mankotia ensured the defeat of the Congress heavyweight Chandresh Kumari.

The left parties, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in particular, performed better than last time. Sanjay Chauhan, the CPI(M) candidate from Shimla, came runner-up, losing to Suresh Bharadwaj of the BJP by 2,588 votes; here the Congress candidate and outgoing legislator Harbhajan Singh Bhajji came third. Together, the Congress and the CPI(M) got more votes here than the BJP candidate. In Ani, a reserved seat, where the CPI(M) came third after the BJP and the Congress, the margin was only 1,449 votes. The CPI(M)s vote proved much more crucial here than the BSP factor.

Prominent losers in the Congress were former legislator and veteran leader Chandresh Kumari from Dharamsala, newcomer Parkash Chand from Arki, former Minister Asha Kumari from Banikhet, Thakur Ram Lal from Kotkehloor, Harbhajan Bhajji from Shimla, Rajinder Verma from Theog and Ajay Mahajan from Nurpur. Both Vidya Stokes, former Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief, and Nikhil Rajour, brother of PCC chief Viplove Thakur, scraped through in their constituencies in Kumarsain and Jaswan respectively.

In Arki, there was an open rebellion in the Congress as party workers thought that the candidate, Parkash Chand, had been foisted on them by the high command, ignoring the claims of former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly, Dharam Pal Thakur. Predictably, the Congress dissidence helped the BJP. Thakur contested as an independent and came second while the Congress nominee got only a humiliating 7,569 votes. The polling percentage was 75.93 per cent here, higher than the State average. Thakur was denied the ticket because of a perceived anti-incumbency sentiment against him. Evidently, the partys assessment was quite off the mark. In Theog, the Congress ignored the claims of the sitting legislator, Rakesh Verma, who contested as an independent and won the seat by 5,284 votes.

Five years ago, both the Congress and the BJP faced rebellion from within their ranks as a result of which six independents were elected. The vote share of the independents along with the other parties in the fray was 23.90 per cent in 2003. This time, it came down to 14.80 per cent. Himachal has always been a bastion of the Congress. If the party suffered huge losses this time, it has only itself to blame for. First, by re-nominating the majority of sitting legislators in order to mitigate the rebellion factor the Congress took the greater risk of facing the anti-incumbency sentiment. Most of the re-nominated candidates were perceived as non-performers not only by the electorate but by party persons. Second, it is clear that had secular votes not been divided among the BSP, the left parties and the Congress, the outcome would have been vastly different. It is also clear that even though these elections were a largely polarised affair, the electorate may prefer a third alternative in the not-too-distant future.

For two reasons, the results of the Assembly elections may not be necessarily replicated in the Lok Sabha elections. First, the polling percentages vary in State elections and in general elections and second, the issues that are involved are also vastly different. It is the manner in which the issues are dealt with at the State level that is decisive in the victory or defeat of any party. That is one reason why Himachal voted differently despite having the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre as it did to oust the BJP in 2003 despite an NDA government at the Centre.

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