When the music stops

Dear readers,

In Maharashtra’s political theatre, power rarely comes with permanence—a lesson Eknath Shinde is learning as he exits the stage he dramatically claimed just two and a half years ago. The power games in politics are uncanny, unscrupulous, but hardly unplanned, a truth that has played out again in India’s richest State.

When Shinde hinted at making “the supreme sacrifice” just days after pitching himself as Maharashtra’s Chief Minister and reminding the BJP of the “Bihar model”, few were surprised. Setting aside his initial disappointment, Shinde declared himself an “open-minded person” for whom the position of “ladla” (dear) brother meant more than any other role. He assured Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the Prime Minister should not view him as an obstacle.

The dynamics changed noticeably after the BJP secured the lion’s share of the National Democratic Alliance’s seats in Maharashtra (132 of the 235 seats won by Mahayuti, the alliance it leads). Before the results, some BJP leaders had suggested Shinde could remain Chief Minister, citing Bihar, where Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar had held the top post despite the BJP having more seats. But calls within the BJP for making Devendra Fadnavis the Chief Minister soon grew louder. Shinde’s Sena leaders quietly reminded everyone that Shinde’s chief ministership had been promised regardless of seats, but the results strengthened the BJP’s claims.

In retrospect, Shinde was essentially an “accidental” Chief Minister for the period that began in June 2022 after he broke from the parent Shiv Sena. Both his rise to power and exit were marked by drama. “I never considered myself a CM, rather a common man,” he said once.

Remember Sanjaya Baru’s 2014 book, The Accidental Prime Minister, about Manmohan Singh? It was later adapted into a film starring Anupam Kher in 2019 and triggered a controversy. Singh is arguably the most popular among the “accidentals”. But many such candidates have made the mark, Shinde being the latest addition to the list.

Let us take another example from Delhi. Yes, you guessed right—Atishi, who assumed office when Arvind Kejriwal faced legal challenges after his release from jail in September. Atishi, however, was clear about her temporary role, expressing the AAP’s commitment to reinstate Kejriwal after the 2025 Delhi election.

Jitan Ram Manjhi’s case in Bihar provides another intriguing parallel. Following the JD(U)’s poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Nitish Kumar appointed him Chief Minister. But Manjhi’s tenure proved brief. When Nitish sought to reclaim the chair, even Manjhi’s Dalit identity could not save his position.

Perhaps the most striking case is that of Madhu Koda, Jharkhand’s Chief Minister between 2006 and 2008. As an independent MLA in his 30s, Koda became Chief Minister in an unprecedented way: after forming a pressure group of five independent MLAs called the G-5, having previously toppled two governments by withdrawing support.

But Koda’s fall from power was even more dramatic than his rise—he ended up behind bars in a coal corruption scandal that shattered his political career. Although both Koda and his wife Geeta later became MPs, their political influence has waned. The Supreme Court’s October 2024 decision to uphold his conviction barred his Assembly election aspirations. His wife, a BJP candidate, lost the Jagannathpur Assembly seat in this election.

Jharkhand’s first Chief Minister, Babulal Marandi, was another surprise choice when the State separated from Bihar in 2000. A former schoolteacher with deep RSS roots, Marandi’s tenure proved short. He lost out to Arjun Munda in the 2003 chief ministerial race. After nearly two decades of unsuccessful attempts with his own party, he rejoined the BJP in 2020. But the party’s performance in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in 2024 has led to calls for replacing Marandi.

Bihar’s Rabri Devi, perhaps the most successful “accidental” Chief Minister, served three terms—a tenure few could have predicted. Lalu Prasad installed his wife as Chief Minister in July 1997 when facing arrest in the fodder scam case. What began as a temporary arrangement became permanent when Lalu never returned to the chair, despite the Rashtriya Janata Dal winning two more elections, though critics alleged that it was Lalu who ruled from behind bars.

The path to chief ministership has unexpected turns. In Uttar Pradesh’s 2017 Assembly election, news channels showed Chief Minister-apparent Manoj Sinha visiting temples en route to Lucknow, only for Yogi Adityanath to emerge as the surprise choice. While party insiders claimed that Adityanath’s selection was predetermined after Rajnath Singh declined to return to State politics, why did Sinha’s name emerge? Of course, now it is Adityanath who has an iron grip over the State.

Maharashtra’s recent history adds to this pattern. Fadnavis’ second stint as Chief Minister lasted just a few days when his 2019 alliance with Ajit Pawar failed to get a majority. His earlier stint had ended when Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena broke ties with the BJP and formed an unusual alliance with its traditional rivals, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party, to become Chief Minister.

But Shinde’s situation differs from Thackeray’s. Recognising his limitations, he appears to be negotiating for the best possible position under the circumstances, proving once again that in the musical chairs of politics, even the most careful player cannot always predict when the music will stop.

Until my next dispatch,

Anand Mishra | Political Editor, Frontline

We hope you’ve been enjoying our newsletters featuring a selection of articles that we believe will be of interest to a cross-section of our readers. Tell us if you like what you read. And also, what you don’t like! Mail us at frontline@thehindu.co.in