In the cacophony of pre-election surveys and exit polls on the Karnataka elections, an independent and little-known Kannada web portal called Eedina (eedina.com) called the election correctly in the last week of April itself.
Eedina shared the results of its pre-election “mega survey” on April 26 and 27 and predicted that the Congress would secure between 132 and 140 seats, the BJP would get 57-65 seats, and that the JD(S) would stand a distant third, garnering 19-25 seats.
As a full picture of the winning candidates emerged on May 13, it was clear that Eedina’s numbers were uncannily spot on, as the Congress secured 136 seats, the BJP 65 seats and the JD(S) a mere 19.
While its vote share predictions were not exactly accurate for all parties, Eedina’s mega survey correctly predicted the Congress’ vote percentage at 43 per cent.
Speaking to Frontline, Dr H.V. Vasu, editor of Eedina and project head of the “mega survey”, explained the methodology of the survey: “The survey was conducted between March 13 and April 21 and the sample size was the largest among different surveys at 41,169. Some of our major findings, apart from seat projections, were that there was a clear anti-incumbency wave in Karnataka, 33 per cent of the respondents considered the Basavaraj Bommai-led government to be the most corrupt in recent times, and voters identified corruption, price rise, and unemployment as the top three factors that would influence their voting.”
Dr Vasu also pointed out that only 12 respondents in the sample could name a single scheme of the BJP government, implying that the BJP had failed at highlighting its schemes.
Another major finding of the survey was that the Congress would secure the most votes among the Backward Castes, Dalits, tribal communities and religious minorities.
Yogendra Yadav, political analyst and psephologist, who endorsed the findings of the Eedina “mega survey” and has been using it in his analyses while participating in various media channels, said: “What I liked about the methodology of the survey was that it was conducted face to face and not by telephone. This set the Eedina survey apart from other surveys that were carried out during the Karnataka election.”