Threat perception

Russia and China, concerned over the long-term strategic plan of the U.S. as exposed by the NMD test, hint at retaliatory measures.

JOHN CHERIAN

SEVERAL leading powers, especially China and Russia, fear that despite the failure of the crucial flight test the National Missile Defence (NMD) system would provoke a new arms race.

The NMD system, whose stated goal is to protect U.S. territory from any limited attacks using Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), is violative of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. The treaty has been an important component of U.S.-R ussia security relations for more than 25 years. It guarantees that no nationwide missile defence would be deployed and that an infrastructure that could be used to deploy and expand rapidly nationwide defence would not be put in place. The NMD system, b esides deploying radars nationwide, will set up 10 new radars around the world. This is in addition to the five newly upgraded radars, including the one named HAVE STARE set up in Norway, virtually on the border with Russia.

These "upgrades" expose Washington's long-term strategic plans. It is now clear that the NMD system is aimed at Russia and China. Washington has been seeking to alter the ABM Treaty so that it can go ahead with the NMD programme. In September last year, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott presented a proposal to amend the treaty. He told the Russians that the U.S. would withdraw from the treaty if they rejected the American offer. Talbott tried to reassure the Russians by stating that the NMD syste m was only capable of tackling "tens of missiles". This statement, however, alarmed Beijing. According to Western intelligence agencies, China has around 20 missiles capable of reaching the U.S. Moscow, on the other hand, is apprehensive because the NMD, as conceived, can be rapidly upgraded and expanded.

The principal rationale behind the Clinton administration's move on the NMD programme is the apprehension that emerging missile-armed states, such as North Korea, Iraq or Iran, could acquire ICBMs and launch an attack on continental America. Washington h as never mentioned Israel as a missile threat. Not long ago a German magazine published a picture of a circle with a radius of 4,000 km covering broad expanses in Europe, indicating the range of the Israeli Jericho-II missile.

Other reasons given are that the NMD would protect the U.S. in case of a small or accidental launch from Russia or a deliberate or unauthorised attack from China. Many U.S. experts admit that the threat from the so-called rogue states are imaginary.

The U.S. insistence on the deployment of the NMD has virtually derailed negotiations on a third Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START-III. Russia hoped to correct the drawbacks in START-II through the proposed treaty. Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, commande r of the Russian strategic missile force, said recently that the proposed NMD was an attempt "by the U.S. military to defy the world community". Russia finds it difficult to accept the explanation that the NMD is not aimed against it. Russian officials p oint out that even without the NMD the U.S. retains a large number of ICBMs and Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), which are accurate and have high first-strike capabilities. These missiles, according to experts, can pick out holes in the Rus sian early warning system. U.S. nuclear-powered submarines continue to operate near Russian ballistic submarine bases.

Owing to an economic downslide, Russia is said to be operating only a few missile-bearing submarines. Russia's early warning system is a shambles, with its last geostationary military satellite, Cosmos-2244, although functioning, no longer part of the "o perational constellation" keeping an eye on missile launches. Such developments to a large extent explain the Russian anxiety.

Russian officials have said that if the U.S. persists with its path towards the NMD, Moscow would have no choice but to field land-based missiles with multiple warheads, thus rejecting a key provision of START-II. The Russian Duma, in a surprise move, ra tified START-II in April and approved a non-binding resolution asking the President to continue pressing for U.S. compliance to the ABM Treaty in exchange for the START-II instruments of ratifications.

Moscow has also indicated that it would improve its missiles to penetrate the NMD system. In June 1999, Russia successfully tested the Topol-M ICBM, which had a warhead capable of making "side manoeuvres" to avoid collision with anti-missile interceptors . In November 1999, Russia announced that it would resume the production of SS-N-23 SLBMs, a sure indication that Moscow would once again deploy these missiles.

THE NMD programme only has the capability to defend against a small accidental or unauthorised Russian missile launch. Russia may even increase the number of missiles that are on high alert, and refuse to cut down the number of warheads below 1,000. If t he NMD comes into force, both the U.S. and Russia will continue to retain a huge nuclear arsenal. Moscow could also deploy shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons aimed at the U.S' allies and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces. Russian offic ials are also throwing broad hints that in protest against the NMD, Moscow could also withdraw from negotiations on the Verification Protocol to the Biological Weapons Convention being held in Geneva.

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, a senior Russian Defence Ministry official, said recently that the real reasons for the possible deployment of the NMD are "the striving for strategic domination by ensuring a technological gap between the U.S. and the res t of the world and the resumption of attempts to draw Russia into a new arms race and slow down its economic development, coupled with the desire to make its allies more dependent on its policies." Russia also believes that if the ABM Treaty is violated, the entire system of strategic stability assiduously built by the international community will be blown up.

The deployment of the missile defence system will do irreparable damage to the cause of reduction of strategic offensive forces and the regimes of non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons, missiles and missile technology. A recent Central Intelligen ce Agency (CIA) study, reported in the Western media, has concluded that the creation of the NMD system would inevitably launch a race for nuclear weapons. The CIA believes that China will mount multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle (MIRV) war heads on its missiles, while India will build up its nuclear-missile potential thus provoking Pakistan to follow suit. ICBMs with MIRV are banned under START-II. North Korea, Iran, Iraq and Syria would also then accelerate their programmes.

THE "Shanghai Five", consisting of Russia, China, Kazakhastan, Kyrgyztan and Tajikistan, during its meeting in Dushanbe in the second week of July, reiterated its commitment to the ABM Treaty. The declarations support the Russian stand. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his address to the regional summit, had categorically stated that "the global balance would be undermined if the U.S. goes ahead with the deployment of the NMD".

Putin also stated: "New sources of disagreement and discord should not be introduced artificially into international affairs. Today the durability of the international system is being severely tested." The joint declaration at Dushanbe stressed "the abso lute necessity of maintaining and observing closely the ABM Treaty".

At a separate meeting between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Putin, the discussions centred mainly on the U.S. programme. Both sides stressed that the need of the hour was to "unfailingly preserve" the ABM Treaty. The Shanghai Five also supported Chin a's opposition to the installation of a U.S. Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system in Taiwan.

The U.S. and Japan have initiated a long-term programme to study, develop and deploy TMD systems in East Asia. The U.S. is keen on Taiwan being a part of the programme, a move that has further infuriated China. According to experts, the TMD, like the NMD , is not foolproof. Additionally, the installation of a TMD system in Taiwan would give the regime in Taipei the illusion of invincibility. That will further encourage secessionist elements in the island. China will also be forced to enhance its missile capabilities to meet the new challenge to its unity.

According to a Chinese commentator, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. administration will earmark $70 billion for the NMD programme keeping only the so-called rogue states in mind. According to the expert, currently only Israel, India, Saudi Arabia, Pa kistan, North Korea and Iran are believed to have medium-range missiles with over a 1,000 km range and that only four of these nations - India, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran - may be having an active programme of developing intermediate-range missiles w ith a range of over 3,000 km. According to the expert, it is unlikely that these countries will develop ICBM capability in the next 10 years. In September 1999, North Korea had pledged to the U.S. that it would refrain from any further testing of its mis siles as long as the U.S.-North Korea missile talks continued. In return, Washington had promised to lift the economic sanctions on Pyongyang.

The NMD as currently envisaged, according to Chinese experts, will not be able to protect continental America from the thousands of missiles that Russia currently has at its disposal. According to them, Beijing is justified in inferring that the NMD is a imed at China's limited ICBM arsenal. China has about 20 ICBMs and a very small submarine-based missile force. It has the least number of weapons among the five established nuclear powers. China has adopted a "no first use policy" against nuclear powers and a "no use policy" against non-nuclear powers. The U.S., on the other hand, retains the option of first strike with nuclear weapons, as its policy of deterrence.

The experts say that China's "no first use" policy makes it militarily vulnerable vis-a-vis Washington, especially as the Chinese do not have space-based missile launch direction systems necessary to warn them of a U.S. missile launch. The potenti al for a conflict with Washington is greater today than ever before, given the volatility of the Taiwan situation. From Beijing's point of view, the issue of nuclear blackmail is a serious one as it had experienced such situations before. At the beginnin g of the Korean War, the Eisenhower administration threatened to deploy nuclear weapons to stop China from helping Korea. The U.S. repeated the nuclear threat during the Taiwan Straits crisis of 1958.

When China exploded its first nuclear device in 1964, the official statement said that development of the weapon was meant to "oppose the U.S. imperialist policy of nuclear blackmail and threats... China is developing nuclear weapons for defence and for protecting the Chinese people from U.S. threats to launch a nuclear war." During the days of U.S.-Chinese bonhomie in the late 1970s and the 1980s, in Beijing's point of view the U.S. threat had diminished. But now, in a unipolar world dominated by the U .S., the issue of nuclear blackmail has once again become real for the Chinese government.

These fears were conveyed to U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen, who was on a visit to China in the third week of July. The Chinese government urged Washington to drop its plans to build the defence system. Cohen said in Beijing that the setbacks in th e NMD tests were disappointing but they did "not necessarily mean that the Clinton administration has given up its goal of having NMD ready by the year 2005." Cohen will be recommending to Clinton by mid-August whether or not to proceed with the project at an accelerated pace.

Many Japanese experts are of the opinion that the NMD plans form the foundation for a "Fortress America", which would disregard the interests of traditional allies such as Japan. China's top arms negotiator Sha Zukang said that the whole architecture of his country's arms control and non-proliferation agreements could collapse if Washington deployed the anti-missile defence system. Sha Zukang, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control and disarmament in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said tha t China would be forced to expand its nuclear forces and that the programme could threaten missile treaties such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which China had already signed. He also stressed that the sale of the TMD systems to Taiwan woul d "lead to a serious confrontation". Sha Zukang told The Washington Post that the NMD would "compromise" U.S. security instead of "enhancing" it. "The U.S. will play the role of a fire brigade, rushing from one place to another to extinguish fires ." He also rejected the U.S. claim that the NMD is aimed at "states of concern".