Multiple jolts to Musharraf

Mounting domestic anti-American sentiment adds to the challenges facing the Musharraf government, even as signs of suspicions between the U.S. and Pakistan are growing.

IT was not that they had not been warned. Or that they had not fought such wars before. Yet the Americans went in for the assault, like the 21st century going after a medieval nation as it were. In the event, the mythical valiance of the rugged Afghan people once again proved indomitable. In these parts there is a saying - the old Pashtun, relaxing with his hukkah, would ask teasingly: "Brother, looking for the path after you started on your journey?" Five weeks of unrelenting attacks later (3,000 air strikes, as per the November 5, 2001 issue of Time) and the 'allied' forces seem to be doing just that. If they expected the Taliban to buckle within hours of a round of carpet bombing, the friendly forward line states such as Pakistan wished the attacks to be over swiftly and the Taliban to be a sitting duck. Today, if the United States is groping for a fresh strategy and even goals, Pakistan is faced with a threat to its very social fabric. The military government can make a swift volte-face, but the people, oriented over decades to respond with the religious zeal that is symbolised by the Taliban, are less ready to abandon it.

A series of events across Pakistan have provided multiple jolts to the Musharraf government. The regime became a helpless spectator as hordes of armed tribesmen blocked for over a week the arterial Karakoram highway, on the fabled Silk Route. Their demand was that Pakistan should reconsider its support to the U.S. military campaign.

No amount of cajoling helped. Ultimately the military had to engage the services of some of the respected ulema (religious scholars) to persuade the tribesmen to lift the blockade. On what terms the pro-Taliban elements relented is not clear. Some reports suggest that only a temporary truce was agreed upon.

The print and electronic media across the globe were full of pictures of armed men moving from the Pakistan border in all modes of transport or by foot, to join the Taliban in its fight against 'infidels'. The establishment in Islamabad just pretended that it had no independent confirmation of such reports. The standard explanation was that the 2,500-km-long border was so porous that it was impossible to seal it.

More trouble appears to be in store for the Musharraf government as the religious parties have given a call for a country-wide strike on November 9. The date is significant as it happens to be a Friday and coincides with the departure of Musharraf to New York to take part in the United Nations General Assembly session. President George Bush is hosting a special dinner in his honour.

With the holy month of Ramzan just a few days away (starting November 17), there is every danger of the pent-up emotions of the silent majority of people of Pakistan spilling over to the streets. An opinion poll by the American newsweekly Newsweek said 86 per cent of Pakistanis do not approve of the U.S. military action. With claims of civilian casualities mounting (as of November 1 the Taliban put the death roll at 1,500) and increasing evidence of 'collateral damage', the anti-American sentiment in Pakistan could only be expected to climb.

The latest decision of the U.S. State Department to list the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad as 'foreign terrorist organisations' would only add to the challenges faced by Musharraf. When the U.S. took similar action against the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Islamabad got away by claiming that it did not exist in Pakistan. It will not be easy this time. Musharraf tried to impress upon the U.S. to wind up or suspend the military operations before Ramzan in deference to the sentiments of the Islamic world, but the U.S. is not impressed.

It is indeed ironical that even as the U.S. and its allies are hailing Musharraf as the new messiah who would eliminate terrorism, the Western media are inflicting heavy damage on his regime. As the parade of world leaders to Islamabad continues as if they have discovered a new world on the planet, the U.S. and British media are full of 'inspired and conspired' alarming reports about all kinds of future scenarios in Pakistan.

The debate on the safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal takes the cake. Actually there is enough evidence to suggest that the Bush administration is paranoid over the prospect of the nuclear assets of Pakistan falling into 'evil hands'. Amidst numerous media reports raising questions about the relations between Musharraf and the scientists who actually developed the bomb, Islamabad deemed it necessary to pick up two retired nuclear scientists for questioning on their alleged links with Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda. As could only be expected, this raised the hackles among the pro-Taliban and fundamentalist elements. Lashkar-e-Toiba chief Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed accused the U.S. of trying to steal the nuclear assets of Pakistan. His campaign got a shot in the arm with a report appearing in the New Yorker magazine about training being imparted to a special commando unit in the U.S. to take away the nuclear assets of Pakistan in the event of political instability or a coup.

The fear articulated in the Western press was that Pakistani nuclear experts may have already passed weapons technology to bin Laden and the Al Qaeda network. Now it is known that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell actually raised the issue during his brief visit to Islamabad on October 16. He offered a 'free ride' to the U.S. to Pakistani experts engaged in the protection of nuclear assets to study the systems and procedures connected with nuclear safety in America. The military establishment was clearly not amused by what it termed 'inspired' reports about the safety of Pakistan's nuclear assets. Musharraf presided over the meeting of the Nuclear Command Authority to demonstrate to the world total control of his regime. Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar deemed it necessary to make a special appearance at the Foreign Office briefing and read out a carefully worded statement on the 'fool-proof custodial controls' evolved over the years.

The role of the United Front (U.F.) or Northern Alliance is the other major area of friction between Pakistan and the U.S. Islamabad has been opposed to any effort that would bolster the position of the alliance and help it march towards Kabul. In the initial days of the war, Washington seemed to toe the line but as the war progressed with no tangible gains, it has begun to rely increasingly on the Northern Alliance.

Again, if one were to be guided by the reports in the American press suspicions between Pakistan and the U.S. seem to be growing. Reports in The Washington Times claimed last fortnight that fuel and arms supply from Pakistan continue to flow to the Taliban. Islamabad rebutted it as 'outlandish Indian propaganda' but there is little doubt that the report is a sign of the widening rift between Pakistan and the U.S.

The London-based Jane's Defence Weekly succinctly brought out the point in an analysis of the emerging situation. It said:

"In a reflection of rapidly increasing coordination between U.S. forces and Afghanistan's anti-Taliban United Front (U.F.), U.S. Central Command Commander-in-Chief General Tommy Franks has held talks in Tajikistan with U.F. commander General Mohammad Fahim. The meeting in the Tajikistan capital, Dushanbe, on October 30 marked the highest-level contact to date between the two forces.

"After what one source described as a period during which the U.S. government 'ignored the United Front', Washington now appears to be interested in both stepping up the bombing campaign and increasing the flow of munitions and other supplies to the anti-Taliban opposition.

"U.S. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld revealed on October 28 that limited airdrops of munitions to the U.F. in northern Afghanistan had been in progress for two weeks... Speculation is now focussing on the possibility of U.S. ground forces assisting in, or even spearheading, the seizure of an airbase that would serve as both a logistics bridgehead to accelerate the provision of munitions to U.F. forces and as a launch-pad for heli-borne special forces operations aimed at Taliban targets in the north."

The development is of enormous significance particularly from the Pakistani point of view. It could mean the end of its campaign for the involvement of 'moderate Taliban' in any future set-up in Kabul.

What are the options for the Musharraf government in the fast-changing situation? Perhaps it can draw solace from the fact that the same dilemma confronts the U.S.' closest ally in the Gulf region - Saudi Arabia. Islamabad is in close contact with Riyadh. It is no coincidence that the Saudi Foreign Minister flew to Islamabad on an unscheduled and unspecified mission. The official explanation was that he had brought a message of solidarity from the King. Where was the need for a demonstration of solidarity through a formal message twice in the span of a week?

All indications are that relations between Riyadh and Washington are under strain after September 11. The plain-speaking by the royal family does not appear to have gone down well with the White House. The manner in which the New York City Mayor turned down the donation from the royalty for the victims of the World Trade Centre was an indication.

Like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia was among the three countries that recognised the Taliban despite its quarrel with the militia for sheltering bin Laden.

The nature of the parleys between Islamabad and Riyadh on Afghanistan are not known, but there is little doubt that both have reasons to be concerned about the direction of the U.S.-led military campaign.

The fall-out of the war for the Musharraf regime is not confined to the domestic front. The Pakistan economy has been hit hard. The offers of billions of dollars of loans and grants can hardly be expected to compensate for the long-term damage. Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz estimates that the crisis triggered by the war could cost his country between $1 billion and $2.5 billion. The civil aviation, insurance, banking and shipping sectors are in doldrums. Exports dipped by 30 per cent in October, mostly on account of cancellation of orders by U.S. garment importers. Textiles constitute 60 to 65 per cent of the $9-billion annual export earnings of Pakistan.

Pakistan has an external debt of $37 billion and has been making a strong case with the U.S. and its allies for a write-off of the debts rather than a re-scheduling of repayment. But so far it has not produced the desired results.