The real issues

NARENDRA MODI keeps talking of Hindutva and terrorism. So, what is he diverting attention from? Gujarat's pride is another favourite catchphrase. But there is no mention of what Gujarat has to be proud of. The following are some of Gujarat's main problems that the Bharatiya Janata Party government has failed to address:

Recession: Gujarat's industrial growth has fallen since the 1990s. While it was 11.16 per cent in 1996-97 and 8.07 per cent in 1998-99, it dropped to 5.05 per cent in 2000-01. The State Domestic Product (SDP) grew by only 1.1 per cent in 2000-01, as compared to 20 per cent in 1994-95. Agricultural growth is only 1 per cent and is very unstable, given the frequency of drought. The communal violence further deepened the recession. According to the Congress(I), the State suffered losses amounting to Rs.25,000 crores in the carnage. The post-riot recession hit people's livelihoods, and led nine affected families in Ahmedabad to suicide.

Unemployment: In both cities and villages, unemployment has been rising. Four successive years of drought has made agricultural work hard to find. Even those who migrate are not finding work easily and have to settle for lower wages. In cities and industrial centres, around 60 per cent of small- and medium-scale factories are sick, resulting in extensive job losses. Ahmedabad's textile mills have collapsed over the last decade, leaving over one lakh workers jobless. The number of educated unemployed registered with the government increased by 30 per cent in three years, reaching 12.06 lakh in October 2002. Employment in the organised sector has fallen by 10.29 per cent since 1998, according to State government statistics. Employment in the organised sector peaked at 17.89 lakh in 1998. It dropped to 16.22 lakh in December 2001, the same as it was in 1990. Capital-intensive investment in sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals and refining have not increased employment opportunities. Although the government promised the High Court that it would fill 28,000 job vacancies in the quota of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, it has not yet done so.

Water crisis: At present, Saurashtra gets water only for a few hours every two days. All over Gujarat, per capita availability of water has declined from 1,391 cubic metres in 1991 to 1,137 cubic metres in 2000, says economist Indira Hirway.

The scarcity is much worse in Saurashtra and north Gujarat. One-third of Gujarat's villages (8,275) are water scarce. In the past few years, water riots have broken out in various parts of the State, including Bhavnagar and parts of Saurashtra. In north Gujarat, overdrilling of borewells has resulted in sharply falling water tables. Water from these wells with water contaminated with fluoride. Several people suffer from flourosis, resulting in brittle bones and teeth. Around 2,826 villages have wells contaminated by fluoride. In the industrial areas of south Gujarat, water is heavily polluted with industrial chemicals. The more prosperous south and central Gujarat, which cover around 20 per cent of the State's landmass, command over 70 per cent of the State's water resources.

Power crisis: The BJP government promised 14 continuous hours of power supply for agriculture, but most of rural Gujarat gets only four to six hours a day. Farmers need at least eight hours of uninterrupted supply for their borewells to function properly and irrigate the fields sufficiently. Supply is so erratic that many pumpsets are destroyed owing to voltage fluctuations.

Moreover, many areas receive electricity only at night, forcing farmers to stay up all night in order to irrigate their land. In October, angry farmers attacked Gujarat Electricity Board staff in three places Jotana in Mehsana district, Nakhatrana in Kutch and Ankleshwar in Bharuch. According to the Congress(I)'s election manifesto, the BJP government promised 10,000 MW additional electricity, but has failed to produce even a single megawatt. Congress(I) estimates suggest that the power shortage in the State is around 2,500 MW.

Drought: This is the fourth consecutive poor monsoon year. Around 80 per cent of the State has got less than half the normal rainfall. More than half of Gujarat's 225 taluks have received less than 30 per cent of the average annual rainfall. Although 80 per cent of normal sowing was done, it is likely that most of the crop was destroyed. Water levels in Gujarat's dams dropped to 20 per cent of their storage capacity. In Kutch, water available in the dams constitutes only 5 per cent of their capacity. Owing to the elections, the government does not want to acknowledge the problem. It has not started relief work. Small farmers have been pushed off their land and have had to migrate in search of casual employment. At labour sites, wages have fallen owing to the high demand. Successive years of drought and the farm crisis have resulted in burgeoning debts for peasants. Many farmers have gone bankrupt.

Human development: "Gujarat's human development has not kept pace with its economic development. Although it is one of the most economically advanced States, it still lags behind several States in terms of quality of life," says Indira Hirway. The literacy rate in Gujarat is 69 per cent, lower than that in Maharashtra (77 per cent) and Kerala (90 per cent). The rate of growth of literacy is 8.7 per cent, much less than the all-India growth rate of 13.2 per cent.

Only 69 per cent of children between the ages of six and 17 go to school, the lowest school enrollment rate barring Bihar. The infant mortality rate (IMR) is 63 per thousand population, much worse than that in Maharashtra (48), Tamil Nadu (52) or Kerala (14). Since 1995, the IMR has been stagnant.

Gujarat is one of three States where the sex ratio has actually declined. At present, the sex ratio is 921:1000. Bihar and Haryana are the only other States where the sex ratio has fallen.

Caste and gender discriminations are widespread. One in four atrocities against Dalit women across the country occur in Gujarat.

Fiscal mess: The Gujarat government's debt has been increasing. It reached nearly Rs.47,000 crores, according to the Congress(I) manifesto. In the last five years of BJP rule, the fiscal situation of the State government worsened and it had to borrow on overdraft 21 times. It has no money to pay for development work in village panchayats. Bills worth almost Rs.1,000 crores have not been paid to contractors. Government staff and workers have not been paid their salary for several months. Gujarat's fiscal deficit rose from 2.03 per cent of its SDP in 1994-95 to 7.52 per cent in 2000-01. Gujarat's annual borrowing is 15 times what it was 10 years ago.

Corruption: Corruption cases increased by 45 per cent in the three years up to 2000. The most recent and controversial scam was the one involving cooperative banks. Around 20 lakh depositors lost their savings worth Rs.2,000 crores. Over 40 of Gujarat's 353 cooperative banks are on the brink of bankruptcy. Eight have already shut shop. Many banks are not able to honour cheques for amounts as small as Rs.500. The Modi government has not taken any action. Most of the persons allegedly responsible for this are influential BJP figures, including one who is said to have been the convenor of Modi's Gaurav Yatra in Surat. Another person involved in the closure of the Suryapur Cooperative Bank is believed to have funded former BJP leader and current State Congress(I) president Shankersinh Vaghela's `Khajuraho operation' when he rebelled against the BJP in 1996.

Rehabilitation of earthquake victims: Around 25,000 to 30,000 families in the towns of Bhuj, Bachau and Anjar still do not have homes. The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) found several instances of corruption in the distribution of earthquake relief. There have also been allegations of caste Hindus cornering the benefits of relief and rehabilitation, while Dalits and Muslims have been left out.