What the numbers indicate

Published : Dec 06, 2002 00:00 IST

IN the 1998 Gujarat Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party won by a huge margin - 117 of the 182 seats. In comparison, the Congress(I) got 53 and Shankarsinh Vaghela's All India Rashtriya Janata Party (AIRJP) four.

In the triangular fight, the anti-BJP vote was divided. This time, with the Congress(I) and the AIRJP united, the scenario may throw up some surprises. In the 1998 elections, the BJP got 44.81 per cent of the vote. However, had the Congress(I) and the AIRJP put up a combined fight, they would have got a higher vote share - 46.53 per cent (see Table 1). In 96 seats, the combined vote share of the Congress(I) and AIRJP was greater than the BJP vote (see Table 2). Moreover, there were seats in which the BJP won with narrow margins. In 42 of the 117 seats it won, the margins of victory were less than 10 per cent. In comparison, there were 23 of the 53 Congress(I) constituencies in which the margins of victory were less than 10 per cent. These seats can still be considered vulnerable for both parties.

In the 1999 parliamentary elections, the BJP bagged 20 of the 26 Lok Sabha seats from the State. The Congress(I) got the other six. However, the BJP's fortunes dipped in the 2000 district panchayat elections, when the Congress(I) walked away with 21 of the 23 panchayats. Earlier the BJP controlled 24 district panchayats. In the municipal elections in 2000, the BJP lost two crucial municipal corporations, Ahmedabad and Rajkot, which it had ruled for 13 and 24 years respectively. In the byelections for one Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat held that year, the Congress(I) won both. After Narendra Modi came to power, byelections were held for three Assembly seats, including his own. While he won the Rajkot II seat, the BJP lost the other two.

There are many factors that will influence the results in the forthcoming Assembly elections. These include the anti-incumbency factor, the manner in which seats are distributed, and the effect of the communal riots. It is also interesting to note the district-wise distribution of seats. The places where the Congress(I)-AIRJP combine would have won (Mehsana, Banaskantha, Kapadvanj, Dahod, Godhra, Kheda, Anand and Chottaudaipur) are precisely the places that were targeted during the communal clashes. The only other riot-affected places that still show a BJP lead are Ahmedabad and Vadodara.

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