Gujarat and beyond

The Congress(I)'s change of mind in favour of forming a non-BJP front with other secular-minded parties for the elections to the Gujarat Assembly will have a far-reaching impact on the nature and direction of national politics.

THE Sangh Parivar sees Gujarat as the Hindutva laboratory. Its leaders have been claiming untiringly that if their Hindutva experiments in the State yield good results in the Assembly elections, they can be emulated in other States as well.

The Congress(I) may not like to look at the poll outcome in such a way, but it certainly has come to realise that it will set the agenda for the next general elections. This realisation has made the party come down from its high pedestal on the issue of holding negotiations with other political parties in order to forge an anti-Bharatiya Janata Party front. From an earlier stand of maintaining that non-Hindutva parties should come forward on their own and support the Congress(I) in order to defeat the communal forces since no other party save the Congress(I) and the BJP has a base in Gujarat, the party has now taken the initiative to hold talks with secular parties at the State level.

The Congress(I) has clarified that an anti-BJP front will mean not only joint campaigning, but seat-sharing among its partners in accordance with the "ground realities". State Congress(I) president Shankar Singh Vaghela has been instructed to test the ground and begin negotiations.

All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Kamal Nath, who is in charge of Gujarat, has categorically stated that the Congress(I) has no reservations about making seat adjustments with "like-minded parties" in order to defeat the BJP in Gujarat. He, however, said that the other parties should realise that it was the Congress(I) that was primarily fighting the communal forces in the State. "We have initiated talks with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Samajwadi Party, the Lok Janshakti [of Ram Vilas Paswan] and the Left parties at the State level. There is a need for all like-minded parties to join hands in order to defeat the communal forces," Kamal Nath told Frontline. The stress on "ground realities" in the matter of seat-sharing means that the "winnability" of a particular candidate in a particular constituency will be the primary criterion for such understanding.

While admitting that the outcome of the Gujarat elections would have any far-reaching impact on the direction of politics at the national level, Kamal Nath said that this was because the BJP itself had described Gujarat as its "Hindutva laboratory". He said there was no doubt that the BJP was trying to polarise people along religious lines. "But we are sure that the people will see through their game and defeat their divisive policies. We are confident that people will come out in large numbers to vote for peace, unity, prosperity and communal harmony," Kamal Nath said. He said the party was ready to face elections whenever they were held and expressed confidence that Gujarat would be the 15th State in the Congress(I)'s kitty.

Kamal Nath, however, made it clear that the understanding with "like-minded" parties in Gujarat would not mean that the party would make similar arrangements everywhere else. This becomes important in view of the fact that the Samajwadi Party has offered its support to the Congress(I) in Gujarat on condition that the latter help it in its bid to form the government in Uttar Pradesh. S.P. general secretary Amar Singh has already met Congress(I) president Sonia Gandhi and conveyed his party's stand. The Congress(I), however, is in no hurry to commit itself to any such conditionality. "Let first things happen first; then we can think about the second thing," Kamal Nath said in reply to a question whether an alliance with the S.P. in Gujarat would lead to the two parties coming together in Uttar Pradesh.

But it is a fact that the Congress(I) is the only major player besides the BJP in Gujarat and that all other non-BJP parties, including the NCP of Sharad Pawar, are keen on joining hands with it in the forthcoming Assembly elections. "The issue of Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin is not relevant in the context of Gujarat, so it is better not to talk about it at present," said the NCP president.

Similarly, former Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who broke away from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the wake of the Gujarat riots, has no hesitation now in joining hands with the Congress(I), a party he has opposed bitterly until now. "There is nothing wrong in joining hands with the Congress(I) if the issue is defeating communalism," Paswan told Frontline. However, unlike Mulayam Singh Yadav, Paswan realises his party's limitations in the State. "We do not have a strong base in Gujarat, so it does not make sense for us to go and start talking to the people on our own. But yes, if the Congress(I) asks for our support, we will willingly give it," Paswan said. Paswan was the first senior leader from outside the State to visit Gujarat in the wake of the Godhra incident and the riots that followed, and he received a tumultuous response in Muslim-dominated areas. Along with former Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Arif Mohammad Khan, Paswan has been making frequent trips to the State.

According to political observers, even though the other parties might not have a base in the State as compared to the Congress(I), their coming together would give out a strong signal to anti-BJP voters and instil a sense of security and confidence in them.

THE somewhat sudden change in the Congress(I)'s position on Gujarat had its genesis in reports that the BSP and the BJP have apparently decided to join hands in the State Assembly elections. If that happens, the Congress(I) will be the loser because the BSP can cut into the Congress(I) vote bank. Although BSP vice-president and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati has categorically denied the possibility of an alliance with the BJP in Gujarat at the moment, and has said that the party would go it alone in the State, an alliance cannot be ruled out. If it does not come before elections, it can come after them, as happened in Uttar Pradesh, if the result is a hung Assembly. Mayawati, both before and during the campaigning for the U.P. elections, had denied the possibility of joining hands with the BJP.

In any case, even if the BSP contests the Gujarat elections alone, it will only damage the prospects of the Congress(I), not of the BJP. Hence the interest shown by BSP leaders in the Gujarat elections has become a cause for worry in the Congress(I) camp. Besides, internal surveys conducted by the party have caused consternation in Congress(I) circles. According to these surveys, the party is not as strong as it would like to be, but is running "neck and neck" with the BJP. These factors are also responsible for the change in the Congress(I)'s strategy.

It was not too long ago that Sonia Gandhi, addressing mediapersons in Guwahati, said sarcastically: "What does Mulayam Singh Yadav have to do with Gujarat? He has no base there. He is only in Uttar Pradesh." She said this in reply to a question whether the Congress(I) was willing to go along with the S.P. in Uttar Pradesh in exchange for the latter's support in Gujarat.

If all non-BJP parties actually come together in Gujarat, that would certainly set the agenda for the next Lok Sabha elections. A BJP defeat in Gujarat would have a cascading effect on the NDA and could give rise to a fresh bout of introspection among the NDA constituents about their own political future. Whether the Congress(I) likes it or not, there is a lot at stake for it in the Gujarat elections. If it falters, the loss will be too dear.