Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's visit to New Delhi brings the Kashmir issue into focus, coming as it does in the wake of Manmohan Singh's announcement of a package for Jammu and Kashmir.
THE brief visit of Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz from November 23 to 24 was the first to India by a Prime Minister from that country in more than 13 years. Aziz was on a tour of all the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries as Pakistan is handing over the chairmanship of the organisation to Bangladesh in early January next year. The stated purpose of the visit was to gauge the progress of regional integration in the region. But with Aziz's visit coming in the wake of recent initiatives relating to Kashmir by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf, it was no surprise that the focus was on bilateral relations.
Manmohan Singh had visited Srinagar in the third week of November, when he announced a new political and economic package for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He also announced the withdrawal of some Indian forces from the valley. In his speech in Srinagar, he had emphasised that Kashmir was an "integral" part of the Indian Union. His remarks came soon after Musharraf made his latest proposals on Kashmir. The Indian establishment had interpreted Musharraf's suggestion as a not-too-subtle call for the redrawing of existing borders between the two countries.
The Pakistani side was especially upset with Manmohan Singh's emphatic reiteration about the status of Jammu and Kashmir. Musharraf gave public vent to his feelings, saying that the Indian Prime Minister was adopting a "patronising" tone towards Pakistan. He also said that if India stuck to its old stated positions, Pakistan would insist that the old United Nations resolutions on Kashmir, including the one on holding a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir, be implemented.
Musharraf told a visiting group of Indian mediapersons in Lahore that it would be better for all the parties concerned if both Islamabad and New Delhi departed from their stated positions. "If India moves halfway, we will move halfway," he said. Pakistani officials say that New Delhi should recognise that the Kashmir problem has been in the international arena since 1948 and negotiations have been on since then between the two countries. They, however, are quick to acknowledge that there is a commitment on both sides to find a solution to the problem through peaceful means.
DURING their 45-minute meeting in New Delhi, the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers restated their respective positions on Kashmir. Aziz clarified that the proposals made by Musharraf in October were primarily meant to trigger a domestic debate on the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan had already "welcomed" the reduction of troop levels in Kashmir, though Pakistani officials say off-the-record that the numbers involved are far too low and the Indian force levels in Kashmir are "humongous". The scaling down of Indian troop levels has been a long-standing Pakistani demand. The officials, however, said that they would like to see the Indian troop presence scaled down in the urban areas, which had borne the brunt of the fighting in the past 15 years. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed said on November 26 that the presence of paramilitary forces would be scaled down in urban areas of the Kashmir valley.
After the visit of Aziz, it was evident that the proposed bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir would be grounded for the time being. New Delhi is insisting on passports as travel documents, while Islamabad says identity cards will be enough. Pakistani officials have said that there is no question of accepting Indian passports for travellers wanting to cross the Line of Control (LoC), which is not an internationally recognised border. Islamabad also insists that only Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC would be allowed to use the bus. There were discussions about opening other transport routes. According to diplomatic sources, India pressed for a bus service from Amritsar to Nankana Sahib in Pakistan. Pakistan, on the other hand, was of the view that a Lahore-Amritsar bus service was a more logical and feasible proposition.
By the time Aziz landed in New Delhi it was obvious that diplomatic positions had once again hardened in both the capitals. There was talk that his visit would help expedite the progress of the gas pipeline project from Iran and the proposed bus service from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad. However, Aziz wasted no time in dispelling these notions. At a breakfast meeting with Indian editors, he said that he did not agree with the Indian practice of "cherry picking" issues such as the bus service and the gas pipeline. The Indian position is that more people-to-people contact, coupled with an increase in bilateral trade, would make it easier for both sides to deal with the contentious issue of Kashmir. Pakistan evidently feels that this is a ploy to keep the Kashmir issue indefinitely on the back burner.
India also attached a caveat to the gas pipeline issue. New Delhi insisted that India should be given most favoured nation (MFN) status before it agreed to the pipeline from Iran being extended to India. However, a senior Pakistani diplomat said: "The MFN option for India is not on offer." He said that instead both sides should focus on expanding trade links. "For the time being there will have to be a negative list. Popular sentiments in Pakistan will have to be respected. The Pakistan Prime Minister mentioned the issue of Kashmir many times during his visit," he said, adding that the need of the hour was to find "an intelligent way to solve the Kashmir problem".
According to senior Pakistani diplomats "people-to-people" contacts and enhanced trade between the two countries are good things, but the Kashmir issue has also to be addressed seriously. They point out that before 1965, Pakistan was one of the biggest trade partners of India, and travel between the two countries was virtually unrestricted. "The countries fought two major wars after that," said a Pakistani diplomat. Manmohan Singh told the Pakistani Prime Minister that very few people had visualised 20 years ago that the Berlin Wall would collapse. "We can set a similar process going in the subcontinent," he said. Aziz's reaction to the observation is not known.
Pakistani diplomats are also upset with many of the statements that surfaced around the time Aziz was visiting New Delhi, especially the statement of the Indian Army Chief, who said during a visit to Kashmir that Pakistani infiltration levels were still on the high side. Pakistani diplomats said that it was sad that no praise was coming Islamabad's way for bringing down the infiltration across the LoC to the lowest minimum level possible, while India gets all the accolades for extending "the hand of friendship" to Pakistan.
A Pakistani diplomat dismissed Indian assertions that training camps for militants still existed near the Pakistani side of the LoC. He said that the Pakistan Army was engaged in flushing out terrorists from the country's territory and in the process paying a heavy price, politically as well as in terms of body bags. Besides, he observed, it would be impossible under the present circumstances for any country, especially one in the South Asian region, to host terrorist or militant training camps. The Pakistani view is that the allegations by the Indian Army is to cover up its own shortcomings in Jammu and Kashmir.
SHAUKAT AZIZ spent nearly six hours with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leaders, meeting them individually and collectively, apparently to convince them to put up a united front. Some of the Hurriyat leaders were known to be unhappy about Musharraf's latest "thinking out of the box" solution about dividing Jammu and Kashmir into six different zones. To the discomfiture of New Delhi, Islamabad continues to insist that the Hurriyat leadership should be allowed to play an important role in the dialogue process. Pakistan is sticking to its claim that the Hurriyat represents the largest section of the Kashmiri populace. When Manmohan Singh hosted a luncheon for his Pakistani counterpart, he made it a point to have the leaders of the People's Conference, the People's Democratic Party and the Congress with him at the high table.
Pakistani officials said that it would be a step forward if the Indian government allowed dissenting views to find a place in the electoral arena. India's External Affairs Minister, speaking a few days after Shaukat Aziz's visit, said that the Pakistani side was not aware of the ground realities in Jammu and Kashmir. During the Pakistani Prime Minster's visit, the Indian side described the Hurriyat as "small people perceiving to be sitting in big chairs".
A leading Pakistani commentator and editor, who had accompanied the Pakistan Prime Minister to New Delhi, was of the view that in any fair and free elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the Hurriyat would not emerge as the majority party. However, he added that the views it articulates encapsulate the demands of the Kashmiri people. Shyam Saran, the Indian Foreign Secretary, briefing the media during Aziz's visit, said that India was looking at all options to settle the Kashmir problem. "We are willing to look at various kinds of options that might be there but these options must be based on ground realities," said Saran. He added that India was not looking at a territorial solution to the problem and that India's approach was "people centric". People-to-people contacts have been increasing in the past one year, and the fencing by the Indian Army along the LoC has been completed.
The Pakistan Prime Minister said he had not come with any specific proposals, and described his trip as a "transactional visit". Pakistani diplomats say that there is still light at the end of the tunnel, though there will be hiccups along the way. They say that many problems between the two countries had already been settled. They point out that the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) is only 13 months away. "It goes beyond MFN," said a senior Pakistani diplomat. The Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries were to meet in late November, and the Indian and Pakistan Prime Ministers will meet again when the SAARC summit takes place in Dhaka in January 2005. The Foreign Ministers of the two countries, too, will be meeting again in February.
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