The return of the strongman

in Shimla

THE town of Rampur is not more than 130 kilometres from Shimla. Apart from being a Congress(I) stronghold, it is the home town of the Raja of Rampur who is, incidentally, the present Chief Minister, Virbhadra Singh. The Padam Singh Palace, established circa 1919, is a formidable building. The aura of the Raja and his fiefdom extends beyond Rampur. Even among those who might disagree with his style of functioning, it is accepted that he is the only leader in the Congress(I) who can lead the party to victory. The recent merger of the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) and the return of its founder, Sukh Ram, to the Congress(I) would not have been possible without Virbhadra's intervention. In fact, even before Sukh Ram's volte-face, the lone HVC member of Parliament from Shimla, Dhani Ram Shandil, had joined the Congress(I). The return of the strongman of Mandi to the Congress(I) prior to the Lok Sabha elections may help the party's nominee Pratibha Singh, who also happens to be the wife of the Chief Minister.

It is more than a year now since Virbhadra Singh was sworn in Chief Minister. Although both the Congress(I) and the Bharatiya Janata Party were riven by factionalism, it was the anger of the electorate against the government led by Prem Kumar Dhumal that gave the Congress(I) a comfortable majority in the Assembly.

In 1999, while the BJP won the Mandi, Hamirpur and Kangra seats and the HVC won the reserved seat of Shimla, in February 2003 the HVC found itself marginalised; it could retain just one of the 17 Assembly segments in Mandi, considered to be a stronghold of Sukh Ram. But with a support base of 80,000 to one lakh votes, the HVC is in a position to tilt the odds in favour of Pratibha Singh.

This time the contest will be a bipolar one with the Congress(I) enjoying an edge. It is too early to work up an anti-incumbency sentiment against the Virbhadra Singh government. The electorate is more likely to take stock of the Central government's achievements, especially its much publicised declaration of creating one crore jobs. Rakesh Singha, State secretary of the Centre for Indian Trade Unions, pointed out that since 1977 Lok Sabha elections had tended to favour the party in power in the State.

There have been other developments that are likely to give the Congress(I) an edge. First, the merger of the HVC with the Congress(I) and second, the decision of the Congress(I) to field a candidate from the dominant Girth community in Kangra to take on the BJP's Shanta Kumar, former Union Minister for Rural Development. The Girth community, a peasant caste, which falls in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category, has a formidable political presence. From being active supporters of the Left during the peasant struggles against feudalism in the region, Girths shifted allegiance and their political loyalty became divided between the BJP and the Congress(I). For the first time, a candidate from the community has been given the ticket, and observers hint at the possibility of a strong caste polarisation, at least in Kangra. The Congress(I) has nominated two Ministers from the Virbhadra Singh government to contest the parliamentary elections: Forest Minister Chander Kumar from Kangra and Ram Lal Thakur from Hamirpur.

The BJP has re-nominated all its candidates in the previous elections - Shanta Kumar from Kangra, Suresh Chandel from Hamirpur and Maheswar Singh from Mandi - and nominated H.N. Kashyap, an Indian Administrative Service officer, for the Shimla seat.

For the BJP, the Vajpayee factor is going to play the key role. Says Narendra Bragta, BJP campaign committee member and former Minister in the Dhumal government: "Atalji's image will be our axis." The party is focussing on development issues, especially schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana. "We shall ask for votes on the basis of Atalji's leadership, and win all four seats," Bragta claimed. He said that Sukh Ram joining the Congress(I) would not affect the BJP as the HVC's importance had diminished after two of its Ministers joined the BJP.

However, the mood and opinion of a section of the electorate seemed unclear. "We cannot say anything at the moment. But Sukh Ram has given an advantage to the Congress(I)," said Ajay Kumar, the owner of a roadside eatery in Phagu. He voted for the BJP in the 1999 elections but rooted for the Congress(I) in the Assembly polls. Is the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi an issue then? "In Himachal, it is no issue. Even if it is, it may be within a very small section only. Here, there is only one Congress(I) leader, Virbhadra Singh," he said. According to a government employee, "Virbhadra is the only star campaigner and has the capacity to sweep all seats."

Voters are likely to factor in local issues, the image of the candidate and the performance of the State government. Said Shiv Ram Chandel, a former panchayat pradhan in Theog: "Last time we voted for Vajpayee. But nothing really happened. I have met some people from Lucknow who say that he has even neglected his own constituency."

The highly literate electorate in the State is not likely to buy the "India Shining" campaign that easily. In a State where 90 per cent of the population subsists on agriculture on very small holdings, regular employment has always been in great demand. "I am unemployed. I have a post-graduate degree in hotel management but there are no jobs going around. We have some land and now I work on it," said Narender Sharma in Theog.