EARLY in 2002, in the midst of the India-Pakistan near-war crisis, an artillery round from across the Line of Control (LoC) ploughed into Abdul Qadoos Kanth's home in Tangdhar, blowing off its tin roof, gouging out the first-floor walls and almost killing his mother. His newly built home is now one of just two that are still standing in the neighbourhood, but Kanth is not counting his blessings. "This place is cursed," he mutters. "There's always some calamity or the other around the corner."
Like everyone else in Rajouri, the residents of the small hamlets of Dhara and Gabbar in the Budhal area had been congratulating themselves on their good fortune ever since the earthquake, which destroyed dozens of homes in nearby Poonch. Then, on October 10, a unit of the Hizbul Mujahideen Pir Panjal Regiment targeted the hamlets for one of the most brutal mass killings in recent months. The men were taken outside, and the women asked to prepare food. Eleven Hindu men aged between 18 and 57, all unarmed, had their throats slit. Only one survived his injuries.
Despite a declaration by the Pakistan-based United Jihad Council ordering a suspension of military activities, the jihad in Jammu and Kashmir continues. At least two major infiltrating groups, one in the Handwara sector and another in Gulmarg, have been interdicted along the LoC since the earthquake. Sixteen terrorists were killed in the fire engagements.
Another dramatic illustration that the earthquake had done little to silence the guns came when Yasmin Ganai, the Pulwama-based ethnic-Kashmiri wife of a Pakistani terrorist, blew herself up accidentally while working on an explosive device. A Jaish-e-Mohammad spokesperson later claimed the woman was an operative for the organisation's women's wing, the Banat-e-Ayesha (daughters of Prophet Muhammad's first wife, Ayesha).
It is unclear just how much of the ongoing terrorist activity is the result of specific instructions from jihadi groups in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). The Budhal killings, for example, seemed to have been driven by local concerns. Witnesses told the Jammu and Kashmir Police that the attackers were led by Sanger Pathan, a local Hizbul Mujahideen PPR commander who uses the nom de guerre `Sky Fighter'. Badly hit by counter-terrorist operations during 2002-2003, Pathan's group was rejuvenated after two Special Police Officers, Mohammad Ayub and Mohammad Yasin, joined it some days before the killings. Long-standing covert assets of the Jammu and Kashmir Police, Ayub and Yasin are believed to have left their jobs after a dispute over money with the local authorities.
While the motive for the killings is still not clear - Budhal has witnessed over a dozen communal massacres by terrorists since 1996, and the carnage may have been intended as a test of loyalty for Ayub and Yasin - the fact that it took place at all illustrates that the earthquake has had little impact on the militancy. Several smaller killings of civilians have also taken place in Jammu and Kashmir in the days after the earthquake. On the day of the Budhal carnage, for example, a local Muslim panchayat member narrowly survived an attempt on his life. At least three similar attacks were carried out since October 9 on minor political figures and civilians believed to be backing Indian forces in the Kashmir Valley.
What motive might jihadi groups have for proclaiming a cessation of military operations? One explanation is that the gesture was polemical, intended to show the public in POK that Islamist groups cared about them. The second is that jihadi groups have suffered significant infrastructure damage and need time to regroup. The Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the parent organisation of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, has admitted that it lost several buildings as well as some 70 members in the Muzaffarabad area alone. While the Jamaat-ud-Dawa does not admit that it runs camps for training terrorists, intelligence officials estimate that several hundred Lashkar-e-Toiba personnel have died in the earthquake in camps scattered across POKs.
Indian signals intelligence has been picking up radio transmissions suggesting that other jihadi groups have suffered similar losses. One communication by a Tehreek ul-Mujahideen station recorded that the organisation's main building in Muzaffarabad had been brought down by the earthquake, and that some cadre were buried under it. Also hit hard were the Harkat ul-Mujahideen training centres at Balakote and Batrasi, al-Badr's camp at Oghi, the Jaish-e-Mohammad camp at Attock, and the main Hizbul Mujahideen camp, Jungle. Documents recovered from the eight Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists shot dead in Handwara suggested they had not eaten for three days before they were launched across the LoC - a sign of the damage the earthquake has inflicted on jihadi groups.
It would be foolish to expect a dramatic short-term impact on violence in Jammu and Kashmir. Most terror training camps consist of only rudimentary tent-type accommodation, which means overall fatalities might not have been particularly high. Such facilities may, given the considerable funds jihadi organisations have access to, actually recover faster than civilian infrastructure in POK.
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