Cautious in victory

The Congress manages a face-saver in Himachal Pradesh, but it must address the primary concerns of the people as a discerning electorate showed no sign of being swayed by a pro-Congress wave.

In what was perhaps a foregone conclusion, the Congress won the Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh but not by a large margin. It won 36 of the 68 seats in the State Assembly, 13 more than it had secured in 2007. The Bharatiya Janata Partys (BJP) tally was 26, down from 41 in 2007. For the Congress, the victory came as a face-saver.

The newly formed Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) opened its account with one seat, while independent candidates managed to wrest five seats. Other parties, including the Trinamool Congress which had fielded candidates in 25 constituencies, drew a blank. Apparently, the biggest loser is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP): it not only drew a blank but its vote share shrank to 1.17 per cent from 7.26 per cent in 2007. The BSP had managed to win one seat last time, but the lone BSP legislator later joined the BJP. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), like the Trinamool, contested on its own. It was a fairly bipolar outcome, even if the contests were multi-cornered.

Voting on predictable lines, the Himachal electorate ensured that the incumbent party was thrown out. The third alternative projected by the Himachal Lok Morcha, comprising the HLP, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India, managed to increase its cumulative vote share, but only the HLP could win a seat. The HLP winner, Maheshwar Singh, is the partys founder and a former Minister in the BJP government.

Praveen Sharma, a senior functionary and the campaign-in-charge of the BJP, had told Frontline earlier that the results would favour either of the two main parties, with independents cutting into the share of both. This was the first election that saw the largest number of candidates in multi-cornered contests in almost all seats. The BJP, Praveen Sharma said, had relied on price rise as a major election issue.

As in previous years, while the lions share of the votes (cumulatively around 81.67 per cent) and seats have been shared between the two main parties, the vote share of the independents rose from 7.97 per cent in 2007 to 11.91 per cent. In 2003, independents had managed 12.6 per cent of the vote share, but other factors were at play. The vote share of the Congress (42.83 per cent) is marginally lower than what the BJP (43.78 per cent) secured in 2007. The BJP, in contrast, secured 38.83 per cent this time, marginally less than what the Congress (38.9 per cent) secured in 2007. The BJP could have improved its tally in terms of seats as three among the five independents and the lone winner from the HLP were BJP rebels who were denied the ticket: Manohar Dhiman in Indora, Pawan Kajal in Kangra and Kirnesh Jung in Paonta Sahib. But the results would not have influenced government formation even if they had stayed with the party.

The massive electoral turnout, 74.7 per cent, nearly 4 percentage points more than last time, left electoral pundits confused. There was little on the ground to suggest either a wave in favour of the Congress or anger against the BJP, and the highly aware and educated electorate stuck to the tradition of voting out the party in power. Indeed, that there was no palpable wave against the BJP led to the belief in party circles that it could well form the government for a second time. Even some Congress leaders said that the Prem Kumar Dhumal government had not performed all that badly. However, the electorate thought otherwise and voted in favour of the party that it felt was best positioned to defeat the incumbent.

Interestingly, the anti-incumbency sentiment was directed not only against the party in power but also against some half a dozen prominent figures across party lines who, having been elected consecutively, had done little for their constituencies. The results also seem to reflect an element of cynicism. It is significant that the Congress did not win an overwhelming majority. There were charges of corruption against both parties and their charismatic leaders. There was also general frustration over the state of the economy, the social sector, unemployment, price rise, the proposed cap on the number of subsidised LPG cylinders.

The BJP leadership under Dhumal offered induction stoves to households to make up for the limit on LPG cylinders. To counter this, Virbhadra Singh, who was anointed Pradesh Congress chief a few months ago as a desperate measure by the Congress high command, declared that he would increase the number of LPG cylinders per household. It was quite clear that the party was dependent on its old war horse, despite the animosity between the warring satraps in the State and at the Centre. Virbhadra Singh, a five-time Chief Minister, managed to campaign in all constituencies, including in Theog for Congress Legislature Party chief Vidya Stokes, who was also being projected as a chief ministerial contender. In fact, the victory margin of Vidya Stokes, 4,276 votes, paled in comparison with the 20,000-vote margin that Virbhadra Singh managed from his constituency of Shimla Rural.

Rahul Gandhis role in the Himachal results is thought to be overrated, especially since he clearly could not produce any impact in Gujarat. Bringing Virbhadra Singh back to State politics from the Centre may have been a survival move for the Congress, but it is also clear that though he retains his hold over the organisation in the State, he no longer casts a spell on the electorate. Some of his confidants had to bite the dust in these elections, which came as a shock.

The campaigns were highly personalised. But voters seemed to know their minds. In Kasaumpti, it was well known that Virbhadra Singhs relative by marriage was a rebel Congress candidate. Despite this, the candidate chosen by the party won by a handsome margin of nearly 10,000 votes. His relative, Vijay Joyoti, who was fielded as an independent, came third and the CPI(M) candidate came fourth.

Prominent Congressmen and Virbhadra Singhs allies who lost in straight contests were Congress stalwart Kuldeep Singh Pathania, who lost at Bhattiyat by a narrow margin of 111 votes; Gangu Ram Musafir, former Speaker, who lost by 2,625 votes at Pacchad; Harsh Vardhan, who lost to the BJPs Baldev Singh Tomar at Shillai; Vijay Singh Mankotia, former Virbhadra Singh baiter-turned-ally who lost at Shahpur to Sarveen Chaudhary of the BJP by 3,123 votes; Subhash Manglait, former legislator, who lost by 647 votes at Chopal to an independent; and newcomer Balbir Singh Verma.

Ram Lal Thakur, former Forest Minister and Congress heavyweight, lost to the BJP candidate by a narrow margin of 1,385 votes in Naina Devi constituency. Dr Rangila Ram Rao, former Minister, lost to Inder Singh of the BJP at Sarkaghat by 2,204 votes and Mahila Congress chief Anita Verma lost to an independent, Rajinder Singh, at Sujanpur by a huge margin of 14,166 votes. At Sujanpur, the BJP was reduced to the third position.

The Shimla seat, which saw a triangular fight between sitting Congress MLA Suresh Bharadwaj, the BJP and the CPI(M), was retained by the Congress by a slim margin of 682 votes. In the Sirmaur belt as a whole, considered a Congress stronghold, the BJP won four out of five seats. This is the belt that fielded former Ministers and Congress heavyweights such as Harsh Vardhan and Gangu Ram Musafir.

Observers said there was an anti-incumbency sentiment against heavyweights in both parties, especially those who had been around for long and had done little by way of performance. The Congress managed to hold on to Shimla, where the party won six out of the eight seats in the region; and the BJP managed only one. At Mandi, both parties won five seats each, thereby negating the idea of any one party holding sway over the region though the Congress was expected to do better here. In Kullu, where Maheshwar Singh won a seat for the HLP, the Congress made inroads, securing two out of four seats.

The BJP has been attributing its defeat to rebels, especially in the Kangra region, where former Chief Minister and Union Minister Shanta Kumar wields considerable influence. He is not known to have cordial relations with the present BJP State leadership. But barring a few instances, most of the successful BJP candidates have won with slim margins. Food and Civil Supplies Minister Ramesh Dhwala, Minister for Industries Krishan Kapoor, and two other State Ministers, Narendra Bragta and Khimi Ram, lost to Congress candidates by big margins ranging from 4,500 to 9,000 votes.

In the Kangra belt, Shanta Kumar had ensured that his candidates were given the ticket. Almost all leaders of his faction lost.

At Nurpur, the official BJP candidate, a Shanta Kumar loyalist, came third, while a rebel, Rakesh Pathania, who was denied the ticket, finished second, losing to the Congress candidate by some 3,367 votes.

It is now evident that Virbhadra Singh will once again lead the party and government in Himachal Pradesh. Keeping him away from the top post is likely to cause a vertical split in the much factionalised party. The Congress is unlikely to risk that, especially with inflation and unemployment levels being what they are.

The electorate will expect the party to live up to its manifesto, which promised recruitments to vacant posts in government departments, boards and corporations so that thousands of unemployed youth get employment opportunities; regularisation of services of people engaged on a contract basis in government departments, boards and corporations within an year under a standing policy; a wage commission to look into wage anomalies; and unemployment allowances. With the Lok Sabha elections not far away, it may make political sense to begin addressing the concerns of the people.