Orphaned party

Benazirs husband, Asif

THE assassination of Benazir Bhutto has removed the last traces of enthusiasm for the January 8 parliamentary and provincial elections in Pakistan, but the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) could still have the last word on this.

The elections were thrown into immediate uncertainty when Nawaz Sharif, the only big Opposition leader now left in the race, pulled out his Pakistan Muslim League (N) from the contest, saying that free and fair elections were not possible under President Pervez Musharraf. His decision to participate in the elections was only on account of Benazir, he said, but her killing had demonstrated that the whole exercise was meaningless to begin with. He appealed to the PPP and the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman to boycott the elections.

With the All Parties Democratic Movement, comprising the Jamat-e-Islami, Imran Khans Pakistan Tehreek-I-Insaf and smaller regional parties from Balochistan, already boycotting the polls, the elections on which Musharraf had set so much store, describing them as the final stage in Pakistans transition to democracy, appear to be in complete jeopardy.

Although the government stuck to its position that the elections would be held on time, there were grave doubts whether this would be possible. A postponement appeared imminent, especially if the PPP, too, decided to pull out.

In the immediate aftermath of the killing of Benazir, the PPP indicated that it was not thinking about the elections yet. The party also announced a 40-day mourning, which was another indication that it may also not participate if the elections were held in the first week of January.

Analysts, too, believed that the PPP leadership would find it difficult to pull itself together and throw the party back into the elections so quickly. But there is also the realisation that the party may sweep the polls riding a sympathy wave. For that reason, its leadership may not oppose the holding of the elections according to schedule.

Aside from making a decision about the elections, the PPP also has to grapple with the vacuum left by Benazir Bhutto in the party. It is the largest political party in Pakistan, and it was evident from the massive welcome Benazir received when she arrived in Karachi from exile on October 18 that it is perhaps the only party with an organisation that goes right down to the villages. It is also the only party in Pakistan that passionately espouses democracy and religious tolerance. While Benazir shifted considerably from the socialist ideology espoused by her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was one of the founders of the PPP, she led it through good times and bad from the time he was imprisoned by General Zia-ul-Haq, first with her mother Nusrat, and then virtually by herself, as its chairperson for life.

As with all dynastic and absolute rulers, she groomed no real second-rung leaders in the party and developed only an inner coterie. Although the party has an executive committee and several office-bearers, she relied upon a kitchen cabinet of advisers and confidants. It would be no exaggeration to suggest that at this point the party is virtually orphaned, leading many to conclude that only a Bhutto can lead the PPP.

Although well-wishers are urging the PPP to turn itself into a democratic party with an elected leadership or perhaps form a collective leadership to tide over the immediate crisis, eyes are also trained on Benazirs husband Asif Zardari. While his political reputation is tainted and he is seen as the main cause of Benazirs downfall and straying away from the partys pro-poor ideology, he has his own supporters in the PPP who admire him for spending eight years in jail on corruption charges, resisting the temptation to make a deal and come out. There is an expectation that he could take over the party. Bhutto loyalists are also looking at 22-year-old Bilawal, the eldest son of Benazir.

But the party has to decide the succession issue quickly. Pakistan is passing through the most uncertain period in its history, and unless the PPP has a proper leader, it may not be able to reclaim the role it deserves to play in the countrys unfolding history.