Reluctant actors

Benazir Bhutto, Leader of the PPP, and Nawaz Sharif, leader of the PML(N), at the latters residence in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in February 2005. They buried their political hatchet and signed a charter of democracy in London in May 2006, but it fell apart after Benazir Bhutto began talks with Musharraf.-REUTERS

The agitation led by the legal community provided the Opposition parties a chance to push for full democracy, but they failed to do so.

IMAGINE a plane standing on the runway, the passengers all checked-in and clamouring to take off. And the crew never shows up.

History will document that for four months in 2007, starting with President Pervez Musharrafs March 9 decision to remove Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary, Pakistan witnessed an unprecedented agitation led by its legal community for democracy, the rule of law and constitutionalism. For the first time since Musharraf seized power in 1999 from the Nawaz Sharif government in a bloodless coup, the military ruler was left weakened, confused and unsure of his next move.

But the agitation was even more extraordinary for the reluctance of Pakistans Opposition parties to make use of this tailor-made vehicle at least to attempt a mass movement for a return to full democracy. As with that plane on the runway, this crew just did not show up.

Political scientists, historians and sociologists can mine these four months for years, rich as this short period is for what it would say about Pakistans political classes, its feudal elites, the armys entrenched role in the governance of the country as much as in the minds of its political leaders, and all the missed opportunities for change.

For instance, had Nawaz Sharif, who was sent into exile to Saudi Arabia in 2000 through a mutual arrangement between Musharraf and the house of Saud (he later moved to London), or had Benazir Bhutto, who went into self-exile with her husband, Asif Zardari, as the Musharraf government pursued the corruption cases filed by the Sharif regime against them, decided to return to Pakistan on May 5, it may not be an exaggeration to say that no one could have stopped either of them.

On that day, Chaudhary was powering across Punjab in a motorcade from Islamabad to Lahore. The non-functional Chief Justice had challenged his removal in the Supreme Court but the legal community, led by astute lawyers in the Supreme Court Bar Association, decided that his case should also go before the peoples court. Chaudhary accepted invitations from various bar associations including Lahore, the countrys political nerve centre. As his motorcade made its 350-km road journey from Islamabad, people lined the highway to give him a heros welcome.

In Lahore, the reception for Chaudhary was tumultuous. The streets of the city were teeming with Opposition activists, especially Nawaz Sharifs Pakistan Muslim League (N), or PML(N). Its second-rung leaders pulled out every stop to mobilise people. The Pakistan Muslim League (PML), the ruling party in both Punjab province and in Islamabad, had to cancel a planned rival rally. To its credit, the provincial government did not do anything to hold back the swarming pro-Chaudhary crowds. If ever there was a moment for a political exile to make a triumphant return, it was then. In the 26 hours that it took Chaudhary to complete the normally four-hour journey between the two cities, Nawaz Sharif could have travelled from London to Lahore at least three times. Benazir Bhutto could have made several more trips from Dubai in that time. But the two former Prime Ministers chose not to seize the moment.

On May 12, a week later, 48 people died in Karachi as the Sindh provincial government and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), an ally of Musharraf that considers Pakistans largest city its exclusive turf, tried to stop Chaudhary from entering the city. The death of so many people mostly Opposition activists should have brought the Opposition parties together in a mass protest. That did not happen either.

The PML(N) said it could not undertake such a momentous task as the restoration of democracy in Pakistan without the support of Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). And Benazir Bhutto, by her own admission, was trying to work out the terms of a working relationship with Musharraf.

In May 2006, amid much euphoria, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif signed a charter of democracy in London. The two buried the hatchet of their political rivalries to form an Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) along with a dozen other parties. But thereafter, she was clearly a reluctant player in this camp, especially from mid-2006, when rumours heightened of contact between her and Musharraf.

In a series of interviews to British and American newspapers, Benazir Bhutto, whose party is said to be the countrys largest, made enigmatic statements regarding her reported willingness to work with Musharraf, sometimes confirming the rumours, at times neither confirming nor denying them, but never denying them outright.

Two sets of elections are expected to take place later this year, presidential and parliamentary. Musharraf has made plain both his desire for another term and his plan to win it from the sitting Parliament and Provincial Assemblies, from which victory is assured even though their own end would be near. The dubious political and moral legitimacy of such a presidential election is plain to all. Musharraf has also made no bones that he plans to retain his second role as Army chief. The PPPs support is crucial to this plan.

In return for not pursuing the corruption cases against her and Zardari and a power-sharing agreement in the next government, Musharraf hopes the PPP will help in this plan. But the PPP leader was reported to be adamant that she would close the deal only if Musharraf agreed to step down as Army chief before seeking re-election. In return, the government was said to be considering a constitutional amendment to remove the bar on a Prime Minister serving more than two terms. Benazir Bhutto has been Prime Minister twice.

As the rumours swirled and left the Opposition suspicious and confused, many of Benazir Bhuttos own supporters and sections of her party wondered if their leader, eager for personal gain, was not out of touch with Pakistans ground realities. In contrast, Nawaz Sharifs strong statements against military rule and in support of doing away with the role of the military in Pakistans politics and governance once and for all won him many new followers.

But others saw a higher logic to a possible understanding between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto than mere personal gain for both. Sections of the Pakistani intelligentsia believe that an understanding between the two is in the best interests of the country at the moment. Both represent moderate forces, and together they can strengthen each others hands in the fight against Islamist extremism. On the other hand, the combined Opposition would include the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). This right-wing Islamist coalition, a one-time supporter of Musharraf, fell out with him for a number of reasons, including his refusal to quit as Army chief at the end of 2004, the condition on which it had extended support to constitutional amendments that legitimised his dual office in 2003. The PML(N) is ideologically close to the MMA, particularly to its Qazi Hussein-headed Jamat-e-Islami component.

The other main MMA constituent, the pro-Taliban but pragmatic Jamiat-ulema-Islami (JuI), headed by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, blows hot and cold towards Musharraf and is also regarded by the regime as a potential ally along with the PPP. Rehman is the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly. The coalition rules the North West Frontier Province, where it is dominated by the JuI, and is a coalition partner of the Musharraf-associated PML government in Balochistan.

Through the duration of the lawyers agitation, some opinion-makers in Pakistan warned that upending the Musharraf regime in favour of undiluted democracy would benefit Islamist parties and the extremists. What was required, they argued, was a peaceful transition to democracy, with Musharraf continuing at the helm and the moderate PPP sharing the steering. These voices grew stronger in the wake of the military operation in the Lal Masjid and the apparent militant backlash in the North West Frontier areas, the conviction behind them being that only a man in uniform could tackle the extremist threat.

The George W. Bush administration, whose main priority is the war on terror and the battle against Islamist extremism, is said to be especially interested in the understanding between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. It is clear that the United States believes Musharraf is its best bet in Pakistan, and a deal with Benazir Bhutto may enhance his democratic credentials in the eyes of American taxpayers.

One result of these separate and disparate dynamics within the Opposition parties was the virtual collapse of the ARD earlier in July. Benazir Bhutto refused to attend an ARD conference in London on July 7 and 8 that was called by Nawaz Sharif to discuss Opposition strategies to Musharrafs re-election plan. The PML(N) leader also invited the MMA, not a constituent of the ARD. Citing the Islamist coalitions presence as the reason, Benazir Bhutto stayed away. Although senior party leaders represented Bhutto, her absence robbed the event of significance, and led to the conclusion that she was keeping her options open. At the end of their deliberations, all 37 parties at the conference adopted a resolution to oppose the re-election of Musharraf through the present electoral college by resigning their seats in the Assemblies, a tactic to rob the election of all legitimacy. The PPP entered a dissenting note saying that if the eventuality arose, the MMA, with a stake in two provinces, should be the first to resign and the parties in the ARD should plot their strategy thereafter.

But the future of the ARD is shaky. The conference saw the birth of a new alliance called the All Party Democracy Movement. The MMA joined it, but the PPP stayed out.

Those who view the current political situation as a battle between democracy and authoritarian rule said the PPP had isolated itself and that it proved Benazir Bhutto was moving closer to Musharraf. Those who see the battle between extremists and moderates as the more important challenge for Pakistan were happy that Benazir Bhutto kept out of an alliance of predominantly religious conservatives and right-wingers.

Of all Opposition parties, Benazir Bhutto alone praised the military action in the Lal Masjid. But, by drawing attention to the rise of the Lal Masjid in the last five years as evidence that military rule breeds extremism for its own survival, she underlined what many in the pro-democracy movement have been saying: Pakistans democracy-deficit has left ungoverned spaces, which have been filled by extremists; the need of the hour is more, not less, democracy.

In the wake of the Supreme Court verdict restoring Chief Justice Chaudhary, Benazir Bhutto said in yet another interview to the British press that the logic of a deal with Musharraf had vanished because any association with him would make her party very unpopular. But few believe that the deal is off the table completely.

Instead, observers are more inclined to see Benazir Bhuttos statement as a negotiating strategy to extract more political concessions from Musharraf in return for helping in his re-election.