Egyptian upheaval

Published : Feb 25, 2011 00:00 IST

PROTESTERS SWAMP TAHRIR Square in Cairo on February 1 in a huge demonstration of anger against an increasingly isolated President Hosni Mubarak. - AMR ABDALLAH DALSH/REUTERS

PROTESTERS SWAMP TAHRIR Square in Cairo on February 1 in a huge demonstration of anger against an increasingly isolated President Hosni Mubarak. - AMR ABDALLAH DALSH/REUTERS

Egyptians rise in unison demanding the exit of President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled the country with an iron hand for 30 years.

THE New Year did not start propitiously for the authoritarian regimes of the Arab world. Angry popular protests, which began in the northern African country of Tunisia in December, spread like wildfire to neighbouring countries and also to West Asia. For almost a month, Tunisians remained united as never before, undeterred by the bullets and brutal tactics of the police. Eventually, in mid-January, they succeeded in getting rid of their long-ruling President, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The events in Tunisia had an immediate impact on the entire region. But it is in Egypt that their effect has been the most profound. In the last week of January, people all over Egypt rose in unison to demand the end of President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. The anti-government protests intensified by the end of the month as Egyptians defied curfew and took to the streets spontaneously. In a desperate bid to hold on to power, Mubarak called out the Army, for the first time in more than 20 years.

According to the United Nations, more than 300 people were killed in the first eight days of the protests, which paralysed the capital Cairo, and other cities such as Alexandria, Port Said, Aswan, Suez, Ismaila and Mansoura.

Mubarak was forced to address the nation twice within a matter of days. On January 28, in a televised speech, he announced that he was dissolving his Cabinet but refused to step down. He vaguely talked of instituting some reforms but threatened to use force to quell the protests. The next day, he appointed Omar Suleiman, the long-serving chief of the intelligence services, as Vice-President.

This was a significant development as Mubarak has remained at the helm for 30 years without a deputy. The 76-year-old intelligence chief, who is known to be close to the United States and Israel, is expected to take over the reins if circumstances force Mubarak to make a hasty exit. Suleiman has been playing a crucial behind-the-scenes role since the 1990s in the politics of the region. At the insistence of the U.S., he had convinced a reluctant Yasser Arafat to appoint Mahmoud Abbas as the Palestinian Prime Minister. Suleiman got Mubarak to appoint Ahmad Shafiq, a former Air Force commander, as the new Prime Minister. The protesters, who had mounted a vigil at Cairo's Tahrir (victory) Square, made their anger at the decision known by displaying banners which said No to Suleiman, No to Shafiq.

On February 2, Mubarak once again gave a televised address. This time he announced that he would not seek re-election but made it clear that he would remain in office until his current term expired in October and that he would not go into exile. The Opposition, united as never before, has been demanding that the dictator leave immediately so that a unity government can be formed as the country transits towards democracy. The President's offer meant that his government and his National Democratic Party (NDP), which has monopolised power, would be around to supervise the conduct of the next presidential election.

The protesters were livid at Mubarak's attempts to brazen it out. They had demanded that he quit in the first week of February. But indications are that the ruling establishment will not give up without a fight even if it means spilling of the blood of its own people. This was evident when the government unleashed its thugs on the demonstrators in Tahrir Square on February 2. The international media covering the uprising, including U.S. mediapersons, were not spared. More than a dozen people participating in the protests were killed and hundreds of them were injured seriously. The Army, which was patrolling the square, did not intervene as government supporters surrounded the protesters in a face-off.

Shafiq appeared on television the next day to claim that the government was unaware of the mobilisation of pro-Mubarak elements. He described the incident as a fatal error at Tahrir Square. But Suleiman, speaking soon after, did not sound apologetic. He blamed the protesters and those with foreign agendas for the violence at the square. Suleiman said Mubarak, whom he described as father and leader, would quit before the October deadline he had set and that neither Mubarak nor his son Gamal Mubarak would stand for election. He asked the protesters to end their sit-in at Tahrir Square and invited the Opposition parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood (M.B.), to come for talks. However, a spokesman for the Opposition parties reiterated that they were ready for talks but only after the departure of Mubarak.

Suleiman glossed over the fact that snipers positioned in buildings near the square targeted the demonstrators. The Egyptian security forces seem to have taken a leaf out of the Thai Army's manual. Many protesting Red Shirt demonstrators in Bangkok were shot dead by Army and police snipers. A video released on YouTube shows an Egyptian police van ploughing through demonstrators at the square. A report in the newspaper Al Mesryoon claimed that senior Egyptian officials had secretly met in Alexandria to plan the February 2 confrontation.

The West, after initial flip-flops, seems to have given up on the 82-year-old Mubarak. President Barack Obama said in late January that Mubarak should respond to the demands of the people. Following the bloody events at Tahrir Square, Obama took a tough stance demanding that the political transition start now. A joint statement issued by the U.S., Germany, France, Italy and Spain called for the political transition in Egypt to start now while condemning all those who use or encourage violence. The statement seemed to apportion the blame between the government and the pro-democracy activists.

The U.S. State Department spokesman said on January 29 that Mubarak's promise of reform should be followed by action. Washington made it clear that it was not enough just to reshuffle the deck. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany issued a statement on the same day calling on Mubarak to begin a transformation process that should be reflected in a broadly based government along with free and fair elections.

But, at the time of writing, the U.S. was yet to come out with a coherent policy. The confusion was evident when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on January 30 that the U.S. does not favour transition to a new government where oppression could take root. She said Egypt should not be allowed to become a faux democracy like Iran. There are indications that the U.S. is orchestrating a backstage military takeover with a pseudo democratic facade.

At stake is the future of the U.S.' biggest military and political ally in the region. Egypt along with Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. aid. Egypt gets $2 billion annually. Most of the tear gas canisters and rubber bullets that were fired on the demonstrators originated in the U.S. The recently released WikiLeaks documents show that Washington was quite supportive of Mubarak's domestic policies, including his plan to groom Gamal for the presidency. The U.S. has insisted that the Mubarak regime is not a dictatorship. U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden said in the last week of January that Mubarak had been very responsible relative to American geopolitical interests in the region.

Many commentators compare Mubarak's dilemma with that of the Shah of Iran, who was the U.S.' strongest ally in the region until his overthrow in 1979. The U.S. was taken by surprise at the scale of the popular upsurge in Iran. Similarly, no government had expected Egyptians to rally together on such a massive scale.

As in Tunisia, online activism played a major role. A U.S. State Department cable dated March 30, 2009, released by WikiLeaks, reveals the deep fears of the Mubarak government about the dangers posed by the Internet. According to the cable, the government has jailed bloggers who have insulted either Mubarak or Islam. There were an estimated 160,000 bloggers in Egypt in 2009, the cable said. The Egyptian authorities had even tried to block Internet access. Many of the restrictions have since been lifted following an international outcry.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the former International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) chief and also a Nobel Peace laureate, who has emerged as the consensus candidate to lead the Opposition in Egypt, admitted that he too was taken by surprise by the enormity of the uprising. He was outside the country when the people took to the streets. Demanding the resignation of Mubarak, he stressed that the political system had to be reformed before the country could move forward. The National Coalition for Change, which includes several Opposition parties, including the M.B., has authorised ElBaradei to negotiate on its behalf with the Mubarak government. ElBaradei, who has been described as a leader waiting for a revolution, seems to have finally found a role to play at this historic juncture in Egyptian politics.

Egypt has been under emergency law since 1967. The law has been used by the government to curtail basic constitutional freedoms and ban political parties. The communists were dealt with ruthlessly by President Gamal Abdel Nasser. The M.B. collaborated for a brief period with Nasser and also with his successor Anwar Sadat when he cracked down on the Left. Suleiman is a strong supporter of the emergency laws.

Suleiman was one of the elite officers who were sent to the Soviet Union in the 1960s for training. Nasser reportedly told Suleiman then that he wanted him to return as a staunch anti-communist. Suleiman did not let his President down and eventually went on to become one of Washington's trusted allies. When Gamal Mubarak publicly supported the abolition of state security courts in early 2000, Suleiman argued for the continuation of the emergency laws.

The lament on the streets this correspondent heard in Cairo last year was that Egypt was one country that had not experienced real freedom since the days of the pharaohs. For the first time, Egyptians seem to be on the cusp of a new dawn.

Egyptians on the street acknowledge that it is Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution that gave them the courage to confront the state machinery, which has specialised in browbeating the people into submission. Thirty per cent of the Egyptian population of more than 80 million is under 30 years of age. These youth are in no mood to be cowed down by the security apparatus of the state.

Amr Moussa, the Secretary-General of the Arab League and a former Foreign Minister, said during the recent meeting of the grouping in Sharm el-Sheikh that the Tunisian revolution is not far from us. He added: Arab citizens have entered an unprecedented state of anger and frustration, the Arab soul is broken by poverty, unemployment and severe recession.

As in Tunisia, no political party or mass leader stirred the public anger. The M.B. only belatedly advised its members to join the protests. It is keeping a low profile, knowing full well that Mubarak will exploit the West's fear of Islamists to his own advantage. The U.S. has been engaging in back-channel talks with the M.B. for quite some time. In post-Mubarak politics, the M.B. is expected to play a significant role. Kamal el-Helbawy, an M.B. leader who is in exile in Britain said the party stood for freedom, consultation, equality and freedom for everything.

The leaders of the popular movement have appealed to their brethren in other Arab countries for support, promising a new political era in the region if they succeed. Egyptian Muslims and Copts (the Christian minority) have been marching hand in hand. The demonstrators torched the NDP's headquarters in Cairo on January 28. Their next target was the hated Interior Ministry, but military and police snipers kept them away. The police have been particularly heavy-handed in dealing with the people and the Opposition groups. In June last year, the police kicked a young blogger to death at an Internet cafe for refusing to hand over his identity papers.

During the initial days of the protests, it was policemen in plain clothes who were responsible for many of the crimes against unarmed civilians. Estimates of Egypt's domestic intelligence services vary from 700,000 to two million. WikiLeaks quotes U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey in a January 15, 2009, cable describing police brutality in Egypt as routine and pervasive.

ARMY FILLS THE VACUUM

The government has decided to keep the hated police force in the background for the time being as the Army patrols the streets. The absence of the police force, which the Opposition says is a deliberate move, has encouraged wide-scale looting. Many citizens are now forced to band together to defend their neighbourhoods rather than join the anti-government protests. The protesters feel it is a government ploy to put the fear of the unknown into the minds of the people and make them accept the status quo.

The Army is stepping into the void and will try to claim the mantle of being a pro-people's force. The Army has been the main political player since the 1952 revolution, which overthrew the monarchy. A cable dated July 9, 2009, released by WikiLeaks, says a senior NDP official and former Minister, Ali Hillal Dessouki, had assured the U.S. embassy in Cairo that the Egyptian military would ensure a smooth succession of power. Although Dessouki's prediction of a smooth succession has been belied, the Army seems to be on course to fill the existing power vacuum, at least temporarily. Dessouki told U.S. diplomats the obvious truth that the real centre of power in Egypt is the Army.

The Egyptian Army will try to negotiate the political quagmire with care. It does not want its privileged position in Egyptian society to be compromised. The appointment of Suleiman has ended all speculation about Gamal Mubarak, a civilian, inheriting the presidency. The Egyptian military's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Sami Hafiz Anan, was in Washington when the Egyptian intifada broke out. The Egyptian and Arab media have reported that the U.S. read him the Riot Act before he returned to Cairo. The Army, it seems, has been advised against the use of force against civilians but has been told to ensure that the status quo is maintained. In Tunisia, despite the revolt, the right-hand man of Ben Ali, Mohamed Ghannouchi, has taken over the presidency. U.S. Army generals were in direct communication with their Tunisian counterparts when the political crisis was unfolding. The Tunisian Army was told to withdraw its support for Ben Ali and was instructed not to fire upon the demonstrators.

If a popular government comes to power in Egypt, there will no doubt be a serious rethink on the relations with Israel. Egypt has helped Israel in its efforts to isolate Hamas in Gaza. Benjamin Ben-Eliezier, who recently quit the Israeli Cabinet, said, All we can do is to express our support for Mubarak and hope the riots pass quietly. The former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt, Eli Shaked, was more forthright. Democracy is something beautiful. Nevertheless, it is very much in the interests of Israel, the U.S. and Europe that Mubarak remains in power, he said. Washington is finding it difficult to distance itself from the authoritarian regimes it has nurtured while trying to establish links with the popular movements that seem to be on the verge of triumphing.

A U.S. State Department cable of March 2009, released by WikiLeaks, puts the relationship between Cairo, Tel Aviv and Washington in succinct terms. President Mubarak and military leaders view our military assistance program as the cornerstone of our military-military relationship and consider the $1.3 billion in annual military finance as untouchable compensation' for making and maintaining peace with Israel. The cable goes on to add that the tangible benefits of military cooperation are clear. Egypt remains at peace with Israel and the U.S. military enjoys priority access to the Suez Canal and Egyptian airspace.

Meanwhile, the slogan of the Tunisian revolution Bread, Freedom and Dignity is reverberating all over West Asia. The Middle East will never be what it was and what it will be is yet to be determined, White House Chief of Staff William Daley told a news agency. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was quick to express his support for the beleaguered Egyptian President. The Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, went a step further and described the protesters as infiltrators out to destabilise the Egyptian government. A young Arab blogger recently wrote: Either we live in dignity or die in dignity. An Egyptian journalist observed recently that in the Arab world there are 22 Ben Ali's and they all need to go. If the Arab street continues to rage, many Ben Alis might go into exile.

CHAIN REACTION

Even as U.S. policymakers were making desperate attempts to deal with the political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, Lebanon delivered Washington a shock. It was yet another sign that Pax Americana in West Asia was unravelling at a fast pace. The pro-Western government in Beirut, led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, lost its majority after Hizbollah and its allies withdrew their support. It was replaced by a government backed by Hizbollah.

The U.S. had tried its best to reinstall Hariri. According to reports, legislators were offered huge bribes to switch loyalties as preparations began to elect a new Prime Minster in late January. The U.S. Ambassador in Beirut met many Members of Parliament. However, it was Hizbollah the Lebanese resistance movement, which is close to Iran and Syria that carried the day. Its candidate Najib Mikati, a Sunni politician, comfortably won a majority.

The U.S. has placed Hizbollah on its terror list, but most Lebanese and the Arab street view the party as a consistent fighter for Lebanese sovereignty, Palestinian rights and Arab solidarity. The Obama administration was on the verge of implementing its blueprint to sideline Hizbollah politically with the release of a United Nations' Special Tribunal on Lebanon (STL) report which seeks to implicate the organisation in the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The investigation initially tried to implicate the Syrian government but later indicated that functionaries of Hizbollah were involved in the assassination. Hizbollah and many states in the region believe that the U.N. inquiry was nothing but a U.S.-Israeli ploy to corner Hizbollah and launch another war in the region.

Hizbollah, along with Syria and Saudi Arabia which played a mediatory role, advised Saad Hariri (Rafiq's son) not to accept the report as it had the potential to destabilise not only Lebanon but the entire region. But Saad Hariri, under pressure from Washington, refused to budge. Hizbollah and parties aligned to it withdrew from his Cabinet. Hariri had no other option but to resign. Hizbollah has brought about this radical transformation in Lebanese politics through constitutional means and not violence or street protests.

The U.S. was not inclined to accept the outcome gracefully. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a warning in the last week of January that the formation of a Hizbollah-dominated government in Lebanon would mean changes in the relations with the country. The Obama administration has already started a review of its assistance programme to Lebanon. The U.S. has been providing substantial military assistance to make the Lebanese Army an effective counterweight to the Hizbollah militia. Hizbollah had thwarted the Israeli military invasion of Lebanon in 2008 and given the most powerful army in the region a bloody nose.

We describe the Tribunal as an American and Israeli tool, said Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the charismatic Hizbollah leader, in a recent speech. The U.S. recently pledged to contribute $10 million to the STL to compensate it for the funding Lebanon held back after the defeat of the Hariri government. The U.N. has refused to consider Israel as one of the suspects in the Hariri murder despite Hizbollah providing video evidence implicating Israeli security agencies. The Israel-U.S. strategy seems to be to involve Iran in a proxy war in Lebanon by pitting the international community represented by the U.N. against Hizbollah.

The U.S. is insisting that the new Lebanese government cooperate with the STL. The U.S. State Department spokesman said that the U.N. Tribunal was vital for stability, security and justice for Lebanon. Only Israel supports this point of view in the entire region. The Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said the region already had many problems and that the Hariri murder inquiry was not a priority. He was speaking at a regional conference in Doha, attended by the U.S. Secretary of State, in the last week of January.

FREEDOM, BREAD AND JOBS

Yemen and Jordan, where the rate of unemployment is the highest, are witnessing big anti-government demonstrations. In Yemen, the long-ruling President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, gave in to the call of the protesters and reiterated on February 2 that he would not to run again for President when his term ended in 2013. He also pledged that none from his family would aspire for the presidency. No extension, no inheritance, no resetting the clock, the President said in a speech. Before trouble broke out on the streets of Sana'a, the Yemeni capital, the President's party was contemplating a referendum to change the constitution in order to allow him to be President for life. Saleh has been in power since 1978.

In response to the anger on the streets, the President also announced increases in the salaries of government servants. Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world. It is the first time that people have staged protests there on such a big scale.

Jordanians have been out on the streets since early January demanding bread and freedom and the resignation of the government. The unemployment rate in Jordan is estimated to be around 30 per cent. King Abdullah, in a bid to defuse the volatile situation, sacked his Prime Minister and the Cabinet. The protesters, led by the Islamic Action Front (IAF), have desisted from openly challenging the monarchy and are insisting that they only want transparent elections. The last open challenge to the Jordanian throne came during the Black September of 1970 when Palestinian guerilla groups led by Fatah clashed with the Jordanian Army. Palestinians today constitute the majority of the population but are discriminated against when it comes to jobs in the Army and the government.

The IAF is not happy with the King's choice of Marouf Bakhit as the new Prime Minister and has rejected the invitation to join the Cabinet. The King's office issued a statement saying that Bakhit's mission is to take practical, quick and tangible steps to launch true political reforms, enhance Jordan's democratic drive and ensure safe and decent living for all Jordanians. Elections in the kingdom have never been really free and fair.

Both Yemen and Jordan are key military allies of the U.S. Jordan, along with Egypt, was among the first Arab countries to recognise Israel. In Yemen, the U.S. has been given complete freedom to conduct military operations. Washington is no doubt loath to see instability grip two more of its important allies in the region.

Algerians were among the first to take to the streets after the popular uprising in Tunisia gained momentum, but the government there was quick to act. It banned demonstrations but reduced the price of essential food items. Although unemployment, housing shortage and alienation among the youth are major issues, the Algerian government is much better placed than others in the region to deal with the problems at hand because of the revenues being generated from the hydrocarbon sector.

Secular opposition parties, which have formed the National Coordination for Change and Democracy, have vowed to continue their protests despite a ban on demonstrations for security reasons. They have called a march on February 12 to demand the departure of the regime. A 2008 U.S. State Department document, released by WikiLeaks, describes the Algerian government as fragile and riddled with unprecedented levels of corruption. On February 3, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika declared that the 19-year-old emergency laws would soon be lifted and that opposition parties would be given time on the state-controlled media.

Neighbouring Morocco is taking no chances. According to reports, the government has ordered troops to go to major cities. A dissident Moroccan journalist, Abubakr Jamai, told the French newspaper Le Nouvel Observateur that the disparities in wealth are such that the rebellion will be much bloodier than in Tunisia if protests broke out in Morocco. Prince Mulay Hachim, a cousin of King Mohammed VI, the Moroccan monarch, told the Spanish daily El Pais that every authoritarian system would be affected by the upsurge.

In Sudan, protests in Khartoum against President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power through a coup in 1989, have already claimed the life of a student, Mohammed Abdulrahman. He has become a hero for young protesters. The Sudanese government has arrested many activists, including leading members of the Sudanese Communist Party. The Islamist leader Hassan al-Turabi was arrested in early January. Many Sudanese hold the President responsible for the division of their country. The South, where much of the country's oil resources are located, recently voted to secede from the North.

Bahrain and Libya have days of rage planned in the second week of February. Algeria and Libya have reportedly banned all soccer matches until further notice to prevent crowds from gathering.

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