In Chhattisgarh, the Congress decisively defeated the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) by winning 68 of the 90 Assembly seats, and brought to an end nearly 15 years of the latter’s rule in the State. The party proved the exit polls wrong and gave its best performance in an Assembly election since it lost the Lok Sabha election in 2014. The overall vote share of the Congress in the State improved compared with the 2013 Assembly elections, when it won 39 seats against the BJP’s 49.
This time round, the BJP was reduced to a mere 15 seats and at least six of its Ministers lost. Three-time Chief Minister Raman Singh won from Rajnandgaon constituency, albeit with a reduced victory margin, and, in a humble acceptance of defeat, said: “I welcome the verdict of the people and also my good wishes to the Congress. I hope they will fulfil the promises they have made.”
The verdict proved that the Congress had successfully reached out to all classes and communities in the State, a senior functionary of the party in Chhattisgarh told Frontline . He said: “If you look at the results, every region in the State voted for the Congress. Members of all classes and castes voted for us across the rural and urban divide.” He said that under the BJP, every section of society was affected in one way or the other. “Because of unemployment and farm distress, which was exceedingly high, every sector voted against the BJP and for the Congress,” he said. The Congress manifesto, called Jan Goshnapatra, or people’s manifesto, was reportedly prepared after elaborate consultations with members of every section of society.
The Dalit equation
The Ajit Jogi-Mayawati combine did not do as well as they had hoped for, but it upset the the BJP’s calculations. While Jogi failed to emerge the kingmaker he had wanted to be, the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) won five seats in its maiden Assembly elections and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) got two. In aligning with Jogi’s party, Mayawati improved her party’s performance in the State. Of the eight sitting legislators that the Congress did not nominate in this election, four joined the JCC.
The BJP was hoping that the combine would chip away at the Congress’ votes, but it had the opposite effect. Scheduled Castes (S.Cs) make up almost 12 per cent of the population of Chhattisgarh, with a sizable portion belonging to the Satnami sect, which the BJP hoped would vote for it. But the Jogi-Mayawati combine cut into Satnami votes. In eight out of the 10 constituencies reserved for the S.Cs, Dalits abandoned the BJP to ensure a Congress victory. In 2013, the BJP won nine of the 10 reserved seats, whereas this time round, it could win only two. This signalled a steady decline in the popularity of the saffron party among the community in the State.
In Pamgarh, Indu Banjare, a 27-year-old BSP candidate, defeated her nearest rival, Gorelal Barman of the Congress, by an impressive margin of 3,061 votes and pushed Ambesh Jangre of the BJP to the third position. Ambesh Jangre had won the seat in 2013. Congress candidates, too, defeated by huge margins sitting BJP MLAs in constituencies reserved for S.Cs: Navagarh (Gurudayal Singh Banjare defeated a BJP Minister by 33,200 votes); Ahiwara (Guru Rudra Kumar defeated the two-time sitting MLA Rajmahant Sanwla Dahare by 31,687 votes); Sarangarh (Uttari Ganpat Jangade won by 52,389 votes); and Arang (Shivkumar Deharia defeated Sanjay Dhidhi by 25,077 votes).
Farmers’ distress
P.L. Punia, Congress general secretary in-charge of Chhattisgarh, raised red flags over corruption, rigging of EVMs, booth-capturing and bogus voting by the BJP during the elections. But it was apparently his accusation that the BJP is an anti-farmer party that struck a chord. Farmers’ distress is one of the key issues that catapulted the Congress to power in Chhattisgarh. Ignoring the issue indicated the BJP’s disconnect with the people. Congress insiders credit party president Rahul Gandhi for reaching out to farmers across the State and say that it was the most important factor behind the party’s victory.
In the Congress’ manifesto, Rahul Gandhi promised three things. First, loan waiver for farmers within 10 days of assuming office. Initial discussions had already begun, said a Congress functionary, adding that the loan waiver would amount to Rs.96,000 crore. “But a commitment is a commitment, and we will fulfil the promise,” he told Frontline . “Second, the BJP had said they would give a paddy bonus of Rs.300 a quintal, on which they went back. Rahul promised that we would give the paddy bonus for the previous two years also. This would come to Rs.36,000 crore. Third, the manifesto promised a rise in the minimum support price [MSP] of paddy to Rs.2,500 a quintal from the earlier Rs.1,750. The finer details of these promises will be worked out as soon as we set up office,” he said. The Congress had sensed victory when farmers stopped bringing their crop to the mandi. “They expected the Congress to come to power and then they would be able to get the benefits,” he said.
Adivasis’ issues
The Congress did well in the constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Tribes too, winning 25 seats. While farmers’ distress became a political issue, the concerns of tribal people who depended on forest-based livelihoods did not make it to the political chessboard, according to Alok Shukla, convener of the Chhattisgarh Bachao Andolan. Dalits and Adivasis were silent voters but they had made up their minds to bring about a change, he said.
Most of the constituencies where women voters outnumbered men went to the Congress, as they came out in large numbers to vote. There were 22 such constituencies and 19 of them went to the Congress. “Collection of non-timber forest produce is in the hands of women,” said Alok Shukla. As access to forest land, despite the Forest Rights Act of 2013 (FRA), kept becoming difficult for people surviving on the forest, they decided to express their anger on election day. The government was seen as working for the benefit of corporates rather than the local population, and the increasing assertion and awareness of constitutional rights amongst the Adivasis was a key factor in the BJP government getting voted out, he said.
In the past 15 years, mining projects had grown exponentially in Chhattisgarh, leading to large-scale displacements. Adivasis were upset at the routine violation of the safeguards and the processes of consent and consultation guaranteed in the FRA. Alok Shukla said: “The BJP did not understand the issues of the people. Its focus on misdirected development created wildlife disturbances, leading to human-elephant conflict. Villagers could not go to the jungle to collect mahua or dry wood. I have seen children unable to go to school because of stray elephants. The administration called all of them migrants and said they should learn to live with the elephants. This created psychological pressure on the villagers. Adivasis continued to suffer with the administration not implementing PESA [Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, 1996], FRA or the 5th Schedule.”
This anger expressed itself through a change in voting patterns. In the Dandakaranya region, the BJP was reduced to just one seat, with all the remaining 11 going to the Congress. In the Pathalgadi region, all the 14 seats went to the Congress. Said Alok Shukla: “The BJP did not understand these issues, neither did the Congress, which was not much of an opposition party. But the people did not have an option but to resist. In the past five years, State Congress chief Bhupesh Baghel gave an open fight to Raman Singh, whose might had never been challenged before. People began to see Baghel as a possible alternative to him. While people’s mass movements played the role of the main opposition outside the Assembly, the aggressiveness of Baghel and his opposition to extensive mining connected with the sentiments of the people,” he said. People in rural areas, for these reasons, voted in large numbers for the Congress where it bagged 58 seats, with seven going to the Jogi-Mayawati combine, and the BJP getting only 13. In the urban areas, the Congress won 10 of the 12 seats.
The insinuation by some on Twitter that the Congress victory in Chhattisgarh would lead to a revival of the naxalite movement was laughed away by Congress leaders. One of them said that the Congress had a very clear view about the issue. “It is a vacuous charge. You just have to see the history of the naxalite movement under the UPA [United Progressive Alliance] rule. The BJP’s track record of naxalite management is very poor. In fact, just before the elections, there was a spurt in violence in the region of Bastar bordering Telangana,” he said.
Chief ministerial race
Four people are in the race for the Chief Minister’s post. While former Leader of the Opposition in the Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly, Tribhuvaneshwar Saran Singh Deo, known as TS, and Baghel were the top contenders, informed sources in the party indicated that former Union Minister Charan Das Mahant and Durg MP Tamradhwaj Sahu were also emerge strong contestants.
Deo, from Ambikapur, is educated, soft-spoken and credited with being the man behind the Congress manifesto. But he is a scion of the royal family of Sarguja and is perceived to be close to the Adanis. Making him Chief Minister at a time when the people had voted out a government because it was perceived as a crony of capitalists might not be the wisest choice. Baghel, from Patan, who had served as a Minister in the Digvijay Singh and Ajit Jogi Cabinets in undivided Madhya Pradesh, became Pradesh Congress chief five years ago and is credited with reviving the party at the grass-roots level. He would be the obvious choice, but for a pre-election rift with the Congress central leadership.
In the case relating to the release of sleaze CDs against a senior Minister in the BJP government, he was thought to be the main instigator and was sent on a 14-day judicial remand by the Central Bureau of Investigation. After the results were announced, he credited Rahul Gandhi and P.L. Punia along with grass-roots workers for the win and said he would continue to work for the public with all his “heart and soul”. Apart from fulfilling the promises made in its manifesto, the Congress is also looking for a strong candidate who could carry the momentum of this victory to the next level in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress’ central observer in Chhattisgarh, went to Raipur and held consultations with each of the legislators. The final decision would be taken by Rahul Gandhi, who held a unique referendum. He reached out to about three lakh party workers through the internal party app Shakti, asking for their choice for Chief Minister. His attempts at invigorating the party with new blood seem to have paid off. Forty of the Congress candidates were contesting Assembly elections for the first time. Many of them had worked their way up the chain of command. Some of them are sons of landless labourers and fishermen, and they had to crowdsource money in order to contest the elections.
A senior Congress functionary told Frontline that the workers were united and would accept any decision by the high command. “In the legislators’ meeting, it was unanimously decided to accept whatever the high command decides,” he said.
The victory in Chhattisgarh was seen by Congress workers as a sign that the party was back in the reckoning for next year’s Lok Sabha election. It also boosted the morale of the opposition in the Lok Sabha. M.K. Stalin, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader, who is part of the mahagathbandhan efforts, congratulated Rahul Gandhi and the Congress on its victory in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and tweeted: “These results will reinforce our fight against the fascist BJP regime and help in strengthening the grand alliance.” According to past trends, the party that wins the Assembly elections goes on to win the Lok Sabha election too with a wider margin. The Congress would be hoping the trend holds true this time too.
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